Forex forecast for a week 11 -15 January 2016
Rate of gold to the dollar XAU / USD for the week:
The precious metal has confirmed a tendency to increase in the first month of the year. The period of rising gold prices coming to an end, and soon we expect the downward trend again. Last week, the metal paired with greenbacks XAU / USD showed growth against the backdrop of geopolitical risks, and the flight of capital from the "risky assets".
At the time the players have forgotten to lower inflation expectations in the G-7 economies. For the week, oil prices fell to the lowest level since May 2004, it caused a strong reduction in the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which reflect investors' inflation expectations. Even the positive data on the reduction of crude oil to the US, and reduce the number of operating rigs from Baker Hughes failed to help oil recover lost ground. The decline in inflation expectations is traditionally a negative impact on gold price and the likely strong factor that investors will not be ignored.
Recommendations for traders of gold for a week: the player is to sell Sell at XAU / USD on the growth rate of gold to the 1111/1124 and close deals in 1075.
Platinum, palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week 11-15.01.2016
On the new week, the players on the platinum group metals are two reasons to open short positions.
First, the published data report in the US auto sales for December disappointed market participants. Total Score dropped to the lowest level in five months, indicating a possible peak of consumer activity in the United States.The growth in car sales is high, but this trend can not last forever. Automotive industry makes a major demand for both metals, and therefore, should not expect to reduce the number of orders from major players in the market.
Second, the weak PMI data on the production sector in China indicate that the player №1 in the global automobile market will take positions. China last week has fallen off the price of platinum and palladium. It should be noted the pessimism of investors across the spectrum of commodity assets: in the last five days of the CRB Index has lost 4.29%. Thus, a strong negative background for industrial metals, and in this regard, traders effectively trade with the trend.
Recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: traders should sell Sell at XPT / USD on the rise in prices to levels 890/902 and goals at the level of 861, and sell Sell at XPD / USD to rise to 513/538 and take 488.
S & P500 index forecast for the week 11-15.01.2016
Macroeconomic data last week were mixed. Indicators for the ISM services and manufacturing sector, and trade data indicate that US economic growth is slowing. Although a high level of employment in the agricultural sector, indicating that the US economy early to write off. On the new week is not so much important macroeconomic statistics. Only on Friday will leave interesting reports: retail sales and consumer confidence. A strong labor market signals that should wait for the data within the consensus forecast, this short-term support of the US stock market. Capital flight from "risky assets" amid fears of slowing economic growth in China, James, we should not ignore. On Friday, the People's Bank of China raised the yuan to the dollar in an attempt to stabilize the situation. These measures like China's stock market - the stock market closed the week in the green, and in North American and European markets have ignored this factor. The dynamics of fear index S & P500 / VIX indicates that, after another period of reduction of quotations should not expect a wave of profit-taking on short positions, and develop corrective movement in the stock market in the United States.
Recommendations for a week SP500: SP500 Index traders should wait for the new week trading sideways 1870-1975.