Market Forecast for the week 7-December 11
Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week
On the new week in the first half of gold worth the wait continued correction to the psychological level of 1100/1115 $ / oz. After the dollar index set a multi-year highs at around 100.58, market participants began to partially close long positions, which in turn led to a correction of the US currency and a positive impact on the stock of the precious metal. But the prospect of gold is still negative.
Firstly, OPEC did not go to reduce production quotas. On the other hand, some members of the cartel were in favor of increasing the quota to the level of 31.5 mln. Barrels / day, which corresponds to the current state of affairs. Oil contracts have reacted negatively, and the trading week on Brent and WTI prices ended lower than 3.5%. Russian second player on the world market for black gold in the last week has reported an increase in production in November at 140 th. Barrels to 10.78 million mark. Barrels per day, which will negatively affect the oil prices. In this connection, it is now quite difficult to count on inflation expectations in the G-7 countries, for gold is a negative factor.
Second, the Fed's Dec. 16 FED is likely to go on rising interest rates, this will provoke demand for the dollar and cause an outflow of capital from the commodity market. Traders understand and will not build up long positions in XAU / USD, and naobort, rise in gold prices will be used to open short positions.
Recommendations for gold for the week: Gold Traders should wait for sideways trading between 1065 -1115.
Prices of platinum and palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week
Rising prices are trying demonstirovat platinum group metals, although the news background is now clearly against them. Judge: released last week, PMI indices for the manufacturing sector of the US and China were below the 50% mark, indicating that the decline in the industry of the two leading world economies. And if the Chinese figure is below the key level for nine consecutive months, the ISM in the US was there for the first time in three years. This trend is a negative factor for industrial metals. However, against the background correction of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market for both metals in the first half of the week will be in demand and can demonstrate growth in the psychological level of 900 XPT / USD and 600 of XPD / USD respectively. In the greater growth of quotations in terms of the future tightening of monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve should not be counted.
Recommendations for the week traders: Traders worth buying platinum Buy for XPT / USD at lower prices in the region with a view to 870/860 898 and palladium opokupat Buy for XPD / USD on the price reduction to 560/550 with a profit of 595.
Prediction of S & P500 for the week
The stock market in the United States it is difficult to move up as the drivers reached historical highs almost none. Reports from the ISM manufacturing and services sectors traders. The industrial index for the first time in the last 36 months dropped below 50%, which is a consequence of the revaluation of the dollar and the stagnation of the oil and gas sector, against the background of lower prices for hydrocarbons. Over the past eleven months, the dollar index basket (USDX) rose by 8.2% in the last five days has established a new multi-year highs at around 100.58. Starting from the second half of 2014 the growth of the US currency was 22.2%.The negative trade balance in the first ten months of this year amounted to 440.04 bln. Dollars, which is 4% more than in the same period in 2014. On the one hand the trend does not look so tragic for the American economy, and at first glance it may seem that corporations adjust to working in a "strong dollar." But most companies quarterly reports suggests otherwise: the second and third quarters of this year, there was a decline in revenue and net profit due to the high rate of national currency. "It's only flowers, berries ahead" - so you can describe the current trend in the US economy. In my opinion, a strong negative effect we observe as early as 2016, when the growth rate of the trade deficit will increase. You can not ignore the increase in the yield of two-year treasury bonds, which signals the impending increase in FED interest rates and thus does not add optimism to investors in the stock market.
Recommendations in S & P500 for the week as traders sell the index S & P500 Sell on growth rates in 2101/2111 and the purpose of the area at around 2045.