Last week the XAU / USD has lost 0.70% amid falling yields on 10-year US government bonds, indicating that the decline in inflation expectations. The platinum group metals last week showed mixed trends: platinum (XPT / USD) she lost 3.95%, palladium (XPD / USD) gained weight 4.80%. Platinum was under pressure due to negative investor expectations for inflation in the US and the eurozone. Palladium was supported by positive data on US auto sales for September. Stock futures S & P500 index finished last week with growth of quotations on 1.37%. Traders built up long positions in the expectation that the Fed will not raise rates until the end of the year.
Forecast October 5 - October 9
Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week
In the new trading week, traders should build up short positions on growth. Inflation expectations in the G-7 countries are still quite low. In September, leading to lower yields on 10-year government bonds, which reflected investors' inflation expectations, was the United Kingdom - in the first month of autumn the yield decreased by 20 bps In the United States the rate of decline is less than - 10 bp Preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone in September is also disappointing - CPI went into negative territory at 0.1% compared to the same period in 2014. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of "black gold" because oil is not only an energy carrier, but also an important component of inflation. In September, the United States there is a significant increase in crude oil and gasoline, which indicates a decline in demand for oil caused by the end of the driving season. On Friday, October 2, the Russian government has reported that oil production in September reached a peak in the post-Soviet period. Offer oil in the world is still increasing, and the demand is reduced on the background of the completion of the driving season in the United States and Europe, as well as the economic slowdown in China. As the world observed the prerequisites for the growth of consumer prices, the financial institutions will have to purchase the precious metal.
Fores recommendations on gold for the week as traders is to open sales Sell the growth rate of gold to the 1148/1159 and goals for 1107.
Platinum, palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week
On the new week in the platinum group metals bulls are running the show.
First, the negative data on the US labor market will put pressure on the dollar in the short term, that will reflect positively on the stock of industrial metals, as the cost of raw materials denominated in US currency. Second, the United States have reported an increase in car sales in the domestic market, which will increase the production of automotive catalysts and support the demand for platinum group metals. It should also be noted that platinum last week reached the psychological level of $ 900 / oz and in this regard can be expected to profit taking on short positions. Palladium, on the contrary, in the last four trading weeks demonstrates an upward trend and the growth potential here is more modest.
Forex recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: traders should open a buy Buy for XPT / USD quotes at reducing to 902/890 and take profits around 945 and Buy at XPD / USD quotes at reducing to 687/670 and take profits around 701 .
S & P500 index forecast for the week
In the third quarter the broad market index has lost 7%, which is the weakest result over the past 4 years.Correction about which investors are told at the beginning of 2014, beginning to be realized. The negative labor market data for September confirm the fears of investors in relation to the fact that a strong dollar is detrimental to the American economy. In the third quarter, the US economy had created 523 thousand. New jobs, which is 26.5% less than in the same period last year and 24.4% less than in the second quarter. Large losses were sustained by the manufacturing sector, which in the third quarter lost 15 thousand. Jobs. Against this backdrop, investors continue to reduce the proportion of shares in their portfolios. "Risk appetite" decreases, and quite significantly - merchants asset sell stocks with high P / E ratio and go into "protective" paper municipal sector. It utilities sector the only one who was able to beat the S & P500 last week. In the coming five days to draw attention to the publication of data on the business climate in the service sector from the ISM, as well as the trade balance for August. The first release can get negative in the light of weak data on the labor market, as well as a report on the business climate in the manufacturing sector. With respect to data on its trade balance, in the second half of the summer the US dollar showed slight deviations that should not cause a strong increase in the negative balance.
Forex recommendations SP500 Index for the week: Traders should open sale Sell in S & P500 on the growth in profit in the 1961/1999 and 1911.