Forex forecast for a week 1 - February 5, 2016
XAU / USD gold rate forecast for the week
The yellow metal trades confidently January closed in the "green zone", it has once again confirmed the seasonal pattern, which we discussed in more detail in the webinar. While optimism for the future quite a bit. Firstly, in the first month, the yield on 10-year government bonds of G-7 showed a significant decline. Paper was clear outsider US yields which fell to 34 basis points
Last week, the Fed held the meeting and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and both the regulator reported a decline in short-term inflation expectations due to low energy prices. Against this backdrop, investors have no need to hedge against inflation risks through the gold, which is a negative factor for the stock. Do not leave without attention and increase the "risk appetite" is traditionally a negative effect on the value of gold, as the metal is seen by investors as a "safe haven."
Recommendations for gold for the week: Traders should sell the metal Sell at XAU / USD on the price increases to the levels of 1124/1131 and the objectives for 1098.
Platinum and palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week of 1-5 February 2016
At the auction of the week players should wait for the development of the side trend for platinum group metals.On the one hand, the demand for "risky assets", which is observed in the last eight trading days, a positive factor for industrial metals. Current levels of both metals are in the area of multi-year lows, and is attractive for opening long positions. On the other hand, the top three world leaders in car sales in 2015 showed slowdown growth. And if China and the US, sales increased year on year by 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively, the Japanese showed the worst results - sales fell by 10.3%. It is worth noting that in 2014 the leading trio showed growth rate of 9.9%, 5.95 and 3%, respectively. Among the best-selling models in the world still holds the palm Toyota Corolla. Since the automotive industry makes it the main demand for platinum group metals, the slowing down of growth in car sales always has a negative impact on the stock of platinum and palladium. Thus, as soon as the wave of demand for "risky assets", we again expect sales of both metals.
Recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: The players should not expect a flat market for XPT / USD within a range of 850 -900, and the flat for XPD / USD within a range of 480 -520.
S & P500 index of quotations forecast for a week 1-5.02.2016
Traders in the new week three reasons to buy index SP500 Buy.
First, America's leading corporations show moderately positive quarterly reports, which can reassure buyers to build up long positions. Such corporations as Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Facebook for the reporting period to increase their profits, but decline in earnings calls into question medium-term corporate bonds. However, in the short term for the stock market is a positive factor.
Second, the yield on US 2-year government bonds, which reflects the expectations of the Fed rate last week fell by 10 basis points, as a whole in January decreased by 29 basis points This dynamic signals that the Fed will not raise interest rates at a meeting on March 16 is also a positive factor for the stock market.
Third, the Bank of Japan on the last trading day has introduced a negative interest rate, it can help to increase the carry trade operations on the background of cheap liquidity. It is a positive factor for the "risky assets".
Recommendations traders SP500 week: Players should buy Buy in S & P500 on the reduction of quotations to the area and aim to 1925/1905 1955.