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Main » 2016 » January » 14 » Forex forecast for segodnya14.01.2016: Will the Bank of England will reverse the trend of the British currency?
Forex forecast for segodnya14.01.2016: Will the Bank of England will reverse the trend of the British currency?

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 01/14/2016

Recent speeches by the Fed, Dennis Lockhart and Jeffrey Lacker of the need, at least 4 times a day raising interest rates in 2016 have strengthened the dollar. His course in the Asian session on Wednesday once again resumed its growth.




Another negative factor for the  euro  was a positive Chinese data balance of foreign trade showed a significant growth rate in monthly and annual terms. Optimistic data calmed the market, to the same, and the Chinese yuan began to recover after the intervention of the People's Bank of China. Against this backdrop, investors returned to risk trade, stopping to dump shares and to buy back the euro.


Another factor of pressure on the single European currency began the November figures Eurozone industrial output plummeted to the level of (minus) 0.7% against (plus) 0.8% the previous month. As a result, the negative sentiment towards the euro strengthened. The pair under selling pressure dropped and tested the new week low - 1.0804.

However, push key support level of 1.08 "bears" failed, and the pair - as we predicted in our weekly forecast - turned to the upward movement, fully restored two-day losses and fixing the close of trading on the price level of 1.0877.


Today, the euro against the dollar in the forecast assumes continuation of lifting euro exchange rate to the target levels of 1.0916 and 1.0950. Here we expect to turn a pair and a reduction to the key support level of 1.08 or below.

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Forex. The forecast for the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Yesterday's speaker  pound  once again showed how strong "bearish" mood of investors towards this currency.The pair throughout the day trading in a narrow range, and continued to test the lows reached earlier. In the short term, the British currency may continue to remain under pressure on expectations of soft applications today the Bank of England.

Nevertheless, most of the negative potential has already been included in the prices. Moreover, based on the technical picture, the British pound seriously oversold and it is realistic to expect restoration of the pair. At least the signals of technical indicators and the proximity of the strongest (since 2010) support level is predicted.


Sterling exchange rate against the US dollar today expect to complete the descent, turn and lift the British currency to the following price levels: 1.4424, 1.4453, 1.45, 1.4537 and 1.4563.

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Forex. Gold rate forecast for today

XAU / USD, 4:00.

In 2015, gold is almost not react to external factors - political crises, wars and acts of terrorism. In addition, the metal does not react to changes in the global economy, as well as the central bank of a number of countries for procurement of physical gold.

In fact, the price dynamics of gold was formed only as a market reaction to those or other actions by the US Federal Reserve interest rate changes. After the December rate hike to 0.25% Activity "bull" market rose slightly, but remained until the end of the year, however, in the usual range of 1060 $ ÷ $ 1080 per ounce.

The situation changed after the New Year holidays. Gold once again beginning to respond to external events not related to the Fed's rate. The US was even marked by high demand for physical gold. Only one day, on January 11 2016, the US Mint has sold 60 thousand. Troy ounces of gold in coins, which accounted for about 75% of all gold sold in January last year. Apparently, investors appreciated the low cost metal and began to buy gold to protect their savings. Moreover, the Chinese have also begun actively buying gold. - Here they are even ahead of India, and it seems that the stop and do not plan to.

All this has become the driver of purchases of gold in yesterday's trading, as a result of which the cost of the metal rose by $ 8.49 and at the end of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, "Somekh" amounted to $ 1094.78 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for the gold price level passes through $ 1099 an ounce. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the uphill climb to the following objectives - $ 1104, $ 1109 and $ 1113 per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is at the level of day turn $ 1089 per ounce. If it is passed, in which case it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels of $ 1084, $ 1080 and $ 1077 per troy ounce.

In our forecast for Thursday suggest a new attempt to metal test yesterday's low ($ 1080 per ounce), and continue to decline to the target level i1071 $ 1077 $ an ounce. However, if the "bears" will not be able to overcome the level of $ 1089 a day turn and follow him the support level of 233-day moving average - $ 1085, then resumed their rise and the rising cost of gold to the above target levels of resistance.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAG / USD, 4:00.

Silver in yesterday's trading influenced by similar factors duplicated the price dynamics of gold. After the panic buying of silver coins in the US demand for silver has started to grow. The volume of these purchases at the beginning of the week was 2 million. 760 thousand. Ounces of silver. And it sold about half of the whole of last January of silver coins. At yesterday's auction quote struck a two-day a narrow range and recorded booming new week high - $ 14.19 an ounce, and who have completed trade.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through $ 14.25 price level per ounce. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - will continue to rise in the levels of $ 14.40, $ 14.60 and $ 14.70 per ounce.

Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of $ 14 a day turn an ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 13.80 and $ 13.60 per ounce.

In our forecast on silver metal we look forward to the resumption of recovery and growth of its value to the above target levels of resistance.

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Forex. news

The news block on Thursday the focus of the market would be the decision of the Bank of England's main interest rate, as well as a summary of the Monetary Policy. The changes are not expected to statutory rates remain at the same level - 0.5%. 
Today, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will publish the results of voting on the basic interest rate and the planned volume of purchases of assets, which is likely to continue at the same level - 375 billion. £ . 
Considerable attention of the market will cause as the German data of GDP in 2015 and a weekly report from the US in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. 
Australia will publish labor market data, which include: the unemployment rate (the previous figure - 5.8%), changes in the number of employed and the proportion of the economically active population.  
Japan will report on the November changes in orders for machinery and equipment. 
Italy will present data of industrial production for November.  
The European Central Bank will publish a report from a meeting on monetary policy. 
Canada will release the November index of house prices in the primary real estate market.  
And in the US are the December data on prices of exports and imports.  
Today will be a meeting of finance ministers of member countries of the EU and ECB President Mario Draghi.


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