Approaching the height of the holiday season, which usually leads to a reduction in business activity, including in the financial markets. On the one hand, the reduction of the already low volatility by major currency pairs entails profit-and-drop, but on the other hand - and also reduces the potential loss in the event of failure opening position.
In our previous forecasts, we have repeatedly discussed, and trade wars, which leads US President Trump with both China and Europe, and the possibility of a global economic crisis and local recession, Brexit and other political risks, the prospects of rate hikes the Fed and quantitative easing in the Eurozone, as well as many other factors that influence the formation of both short-term and long-term trends. If we talk about the mood of the experts in the coming months, the majority of them expect that the US dollar will strengthen its position in relation to other major world currencies.
- EUR / USD. Here, 75% of analysts, with the support of 80% on MN indicators say that the couple is required to take another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through support in the 1.1100 area. The following goals for the Bears - 1.0900 and 1.0800 (naturally, it is necessary to take into account the possible backlash of ± 25 ÷ 35 pips). According to the remaining 25% of the experts, the area 1.1100 - this is the limit of the fall, and now the pair will go to the zone 1.1530-1.1650. Colored green and most of trend indicators and oscillators on W1.
- USD / CHF. Euro and Swiss franc rather strongly correlated - falls against the dollar, the European currency, is losing ground and parallel to the Swiss. That's why here, just as in the case of EUR / USD, the majority of experts (75%) expressed a preference for the "American". According to them, a pair of first waiting for the rise to the level of 1.0130, and then to 100 points higher - to a height of 1.0230. By the way, about 15% of the oscillators for W1 and MN already signal the oversold. An alternative view is represented by a quarter of the experts, who do not see a dollar sign above the level of 1.0000. According to them, in the second half of the summer for the "American" will give no more than 0.9600-0.9700 CHF.
- NZD / USD and AUD / USD. In this review, we describe only those pairs with respect to the future where the majority of experts has been more or less to form an opinion. One of these pairs is the NZD / USD - is 85% of the votes went to the bears. If this forecast will be correct, New Zealand "kiwi" can fall to the lowest in the area 10/08/2018 0.6420. With such a prognosis agree and 90% of the oscillators at both timeframes - W1 and MN.
Several smaller number of votes gained bears, by voting for the nearest future "colleagues" from New Zealand - Australian dollar. Those were only 60%. However, they were supported by nearly 85% of trend indicators and oscillators for W1 and MN. The purpose of the bears - to update at least June 17, reaching a bottom in the zone 0.6750-0.6800. For the pair to a height of 0.7300 in favor of 20%, and 20% predicted a peaceful movement along the Pivot Point at 0.7000.
- And two pairs, the projections on which we seemed quite interesting. Both of them are tied to the British pound is GBP / JPY and EUR / GBP.
70% of analysts believe that the pair GBP / JPY reached its bottom at the level of 135.65, and now she will rise to a height of 141.50 first, and then, it is possible, and the rise above the horizon 143.75. Those same experts who expect hard Brexit and exit the UK from the EU without a deal, seeing a couple at the level of 131.00.
Despite the fact that the whole of May and beginning of June, the British pound fell against the euro, most analysts are looking at the future of the pound rather optimistic. Just as in the case of GBP / JPY, pound for growth and reduction pair EUR / GBP zone 0.8600-0.8680 voted to 70%. The next goal - the low of March 2019. in the area of 0.8470. As for the bulls, they aim to rise above the maximum 01.02.2019, breaking height 0.9100.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.