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Main » 2016 » July » 3 » Forex forecast for a week 4 - 8 July 2016: Gold - the trend is gaining momentum! Brent - three reasons to sell!
Forex forecast for a week 4 - 8 July 2016: Gold - the trend is gaining momentum! Brent - three reasons to sell!



Forex forecast rate of gold XAU / USD Week 04 - 07/08/2016

From the side it seems, after the referendum in the UK financial market has come stabilization, and in this regard, the drivers for growth in gold remained.But it is only at first glance, in fact, this is the calm before the storm



Credit agencies lowered the ratings of UK and ES, it can cause portfolio managers in the world to review the investment strategy for risky assets. Avoiding risk is always positive for the yellow metal. 

Intensified speculation among investors about the prospects for the European banking sector. The acute situation arose at the Deutsche Bank, on the balance of which has accumulated a lot of bad assets. The crisis of 2008 learned nothing from the financial management of the organization: the bank is working with the 25th leverage, this is a very risky strategy. US banks that suffered greatly during the mortgage crisis of 2007-2008 also used in the shoulder more than 20. Thus, in the short term, the demand for safe assets remain. 

Gold recommendation of the week: Forex players in the new trading week, it is worth buying the metal Buy on lowering prices to levels 1335/1325 and Target to 1356.


Brent oil forecast for the week 04 - 08/07/2016

Investors in oil in a new week three reasons for sales with growth of quotations of the black gold.

First , oil service company Baker Hughes has reported on Friday an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US for 11 units in June in the United States put into operation 25 drilling rigs. This trend is a trend, not random, and the conclusion is that during the summer the number of drilling rigs will be gradually increased. Against this background, should not expect growth in production volume which had a negative impact on the oil quotations.

Second , data on the Markit PMI manufacturing sector of China in June once again disappointed investors and signals that the Middle Kingdom will not increase the purchase of crude nefti.19 consecutive months below the rate of 50%, this indicates a downtrend. 

Third , greenbacks grow in the currency market, it is traditional for the oil a negative factor. For the second quarter, the dollar index rose by 1.71%, ending the last two months of trading in the "green zone". 

Brent Oil recommendations for a week: the market participants on the new oil week is selling the Sell Brent on the growth of quotations to 51.00 / 52.00 and target at 49.30.

Read: Shocking predictions Schiller! Oil below $ 10


S & P500 Index forecast for the week 04 - 07/08/2016

According to S & P500 in the new week formed a mixed background.

Friday's release on manufacturing ISM points to economic growth and can expect to yield positive data on ISM services. It is worth noting declines in 4-week average of applications for unemployment benefits at the end of June, signaling the growth and employment can expect to yield positive labor market data. employment component in the production sector of the ISM for the first time rose above the level of 50% from November 2015. If on Wednesday we will get a strong ISM data on employment in the service sector, on the Non-Farm report come out better than the consensus forecast. Positive data are able to support the stock market. 

But, paradoxically sounds, positive macroeconomic data will boost the profitability of US government bonds, forcing investors to take profits authentic items. Bond yields and stock quotes traditionally have a strong inverse correlation. 


S & P500 recommendation of the week: by index traders in the new week is worth waiting for a side trade in the range of 2025 -2125





Aleksandr Goryachev 

Analyst « FreshForex »

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