Forecast for March 31, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
- 11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: The balance of the current account of the balance of payments 4th quarter (previous value -17.5B; -21.8B forecast).
- 12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for March (the previous value of -0.2% y / y; the forecast -0.1% y / y).
- 15.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in March (the previous value of 265K; 269K forecast).
The forecast of the euro against the dollar EUR / USD today 31/03/2016
At the beginning of the European trading session the main currency pair could demonstrate the growth of quotations.
Posted on Wednesday, a positive release on CPI in Germany can expect to yield data on inflation in the euro area little better consensus. Soft monetary policy of the ECB on the one hand and recovery of the oil market on the other hand, put upward pressure on inflation in the Old World. Another catalyst for the growth of quotations of weak data on the UK balance of payments for the 4th quarter, which will support the demand for cross-rate EUR / GBP. In my opinion, today, do not count on a strong growth of quotations. This short-term upward trend, investors can use to build up short positions for two reasons. Firstly, the increase in "risk appetite" is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. The last two trading days, we are seeing strong demand for high-yield stocks and cross-rates. Secondly, the release of the US employment from ADP and consumer confidence from the CB, we have received this week can expect to yield a positive labor market report on Friday, which will contribute to the inflow of capital into US assets. It is also necessary to note the dynamics of the US market of public debt: the differential long-term and short-term bonds continued to decline, which has traditionally been a leading indicator of rising interest rates. In this context, the release of positive employment data will be perceived by investors as a signal of a possible tightening of monetary policy of the Fed in June.
Trading recommendations for the pair euro dollar today 31.03.2016 : euro traders should zhda side trade in the range 1.1250 -1.1375.
Forecast exchange rate pound dollar today GBP / USD 31.03.2016
Traders pound with greenbacks are three reasons for the sales.
First, at the auction in the Old World, players should not expect the negative data on the balance of payments for the UK Q4, which would put pressure on the pound. The negative trade balance in the fourth quarter amounted to 33.25 billion. Pounds, which is 4.46% more than in the previous period. The negative trend is confirmed by the dynamics of the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of England: the outflow of capital has helped reduce reserves by 2.64 billion pounds to the level of 39.18 billion pounds...
Second, as noted earlier in the midst of trading in Europe should wait for a positive report on inflation in the euro area, which will support the demand for cross-rate EUR / GBP and put additional pressure on the sterling.
Third, the report on employment in the US private sector from ADP confirmed my expectations on account of the positive trend in the labor market. The official release we get on Friday, April 1, but, in my opinion, market participants already now begin to buy the dollar at attractive levels.
Trading recommendations for the pair pound dollar today 31.03.2016 : Traders pound with greenbacks worth selling paruSell on the growth of quotations to 1.4410 / 1.4440 and take profit at the level of 1.4330.
The forecast of the dollar against the yen today USD / JPY 31.03.2016
Published this week macroeconomic statistics from Japan continues to disappoint. By the weak employment report and retail trade added negative release on industrial production. this figure is reduced in the last three months of consecutive annual terms. And this is not surprising, since the strengthening of the Japanese yen shows in December last year. Moreover, it is not necessary to count on positive data in the spring, as in February rate of USD / JPY has fallen by 7.06%. The United States, by contrast, this week, traders are pleased by positive reports. You can not ignore the "risk appetite". On the eve of investors actively bought shares on the world's leading stock markets and selling gold. This positioning indicates a strong demand for risky assets, which will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.
Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair today 03/31/2016: Market participants in the forex trading is to buy a pair of Buy to reduce quotations to 112.20 / 111.85 and take profit at the level of 113.20.
Analyst « FreshForex »