Results of the last trading day:
Monday ended with the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar. The growth rate accelerated in the US session to 1.1165 level after the release of macroeconomic data in the United States. Market participants considered the February data on expenditure weak activating dollar sale.
In Europe, the exchange did not work, so the economic data from the US caused market sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. The US exchanges were working normally.
The index of personal spending in the US coincided with the forecast, but the previous value was revised downward. These reduced expectations of a rise in interest rates in April, the Federal Reserve, but not the fact that the euro / dollar will be able to develop the bullish momentum to the Friday report on the US labor market.Today European members will return to the market and see where to trade the EUR / USD before the performance Dzh.Yellen.
The weakening dollar has stopped, when the report on uncompleted transactions on home sales reflected growth of 3.5% in February against the fall by 3.0% in January.
Market expectations for today:
On Tuesday, investors will be focused on the performance of the US Federal Reserve Dzh.Yellen. Data in Europe is not out, so with the arrival of European players is probably the maximum update.
News of the day:
- At 15:30 MSK will present Canada price index for raw materials and the producer price index for February.
- At 16:00 MSK will be released in the US S & P / Case-Shiller house price index for January.
- At 17:00 MSK US - consumer confidence index for March.
- At 18:30 MSK speech chairman of the US Federal Reserve head Dzh.Yellen.
- At 19:00 MSK FOMC member Dudley's speech.
Intraday goal: maximum - 1.1248 minimum - 1.1180, closing - 1.1210. Intraday volatility over the past 10 weeks: 103 item (4 digits).
At 7:30 MSK euro / dollar is trading at 1.1188. As I said above, the sharp fluctuations were caused by the lack of European participants after the US data. Do not be surprised if the same way the euro will go lower than 1.1150.
According to the forecast, I considered the maximum update. To reduce even need to rise above 1.1230. More thoughts on the EUR / USD pair I outlined in the trading idea on 28/03/16 . The idea, I suppose recovery rate to 1.1259, followed by 1.0957 before retreating to the 10-11 April. If the market fulfills forecast of formation, it has recently formed a reversal candle indicating a breakdown of the 1.1143 low of March 24, 2016.