Forecast for May 25, 2016, EUR / USD
Forex news today:
11.00 MSK. Germany: Indicator conditions of the business environment from IFO for May (the previous value of 106.6; 106.9 forecast).
17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in May (the previous value of 1310K, 2500K outlook).
The forecast of the euro / dollar EUR / USD today 25/05/2016
Market participants on the euro and the dollar today in the first half of trading should pay attention to the business climate index for Germany IFO Institute, which is closely correlated with the dynamics of the GDP of the eurozone locomotive.
Indicator three months demonstrates the negative dynamics, and on the background is moderately positive Markit PMI data on the manufacturing sector and the service sector today is worth waiting for the release of data on the level of consensus. Strong support from this release Eurocurrency not get - the maximum correction to 1.1175 / 1.1205, which is likely to increase sales Sell. Negative sentiment on the euro and strengthened the credit market: the yield of the German 10-year bonds decreased to English and American. The differential in yield of US and German bonds reached the highest level since March 29 of this year, as investors buy greenbacks and treasury bonds.
Recommendations for the euro today: a player is selling a pair EURO / USD Sell the growth rate to levels 1.1175 / 1.1205 and closed at 1.1105 profit
Forecast GBP / USD GBP / USD today 05/25/2016
In FX trading, Tuesday's sterling showed strong growth after the final poll in the Telegraph newspaper, which states that the number of opponents Brexit was 55%, against 42% that of the output of the ES How such positive news for the British? It can be said, in part. The survey company Ipsos MORI, which took place a week ago, recorded the following figures: 55% of respondents want to maintain membership in the composition of ESand only 37% support Brexit. Thus, this week the number of supporters Brexit increased by 5%, while the referendum is still a month. And there is no guarantee that after a week / number of other supporters of England exit from the European Union will not reach the level of 50%? Investors, too optimistically embraced the news. Moreover, yesterday's data on new home sales in the United States indicate that economic growth in the second quarter is gaining momentum. Sales of new buildings in April increased by 16.6% m / m, cutting off the negative impact of the first quarter. Since the beginning of the year this figure rose by 15.1%. Real estate sales have a high multiplier effect for the economy, and the growth rate is one of the leading indicators of changes in monetary policy the Fed. In this context, the euphoria in the polls at the time may come to nothing, and we can see the sale of the British currency. Although it is selling a pair GBP / USD is still too early, it is necessary to wait until the market closes the day strong bearish candle.
Recommendations for the GBP / USD today: Player Briton is glad to trade in a sideways channel 1.4550 -1.4680 ..
The forecast of the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 05/25/2016
Traders on the dollar in tandem with the Japanese currency, now two reasons to build long positions.
First, yesterday's positive data from American sales of new buildings in April contributed to the expansion of the yield differential of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds, it increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. Futures on the Fed rate at the exchange CME showed a 60% chance to increase the interest rate on the FOMC meeting on 15 June. Three weeks ago, this probability was estimated at 15%.
Second, there is the growth of quotations on the stock market, that for the Japanese yen as the funding currency negative factor."Risk appetite" is growing, it promotes equity for safety assets yesterday's trading in negative territory finished the yen and lost 1.8% gold, reaching the minimum level for the last month.
Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today: Traders on the dollar with the yen today is to buy the pair USD / JPY Buy on lowering prices to levels of 109.80 / 109.50 and target at 110.50.
Analyst « FreshForex »