Forecast April 21, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
- 11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade, taking into account the cost of fuel for March (the previous value of -0.4% m / m; the forecast -0.1% m / m).
- 14.45 MSK. Eurozone: Publication of the ECB decision on the basic interest rate in April (previous value was 0.00%, 0.00% forecast).
- 15.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB Press Conference.
Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar today EUR / USD 21.04.2016
Today, the main event for the players on the euro / dollar is the announcement of the outcome of the ECB meeting. Players now do not expect changes in monetary policy, since its last meeting, the new measures introduced on March 10 by the ECB.
To summarize the results of the first regulator and vyrobotki new plan and, if necessary, should take a few months. The growth of bank lending and the stabilization of oil prices may allow the ECB to increase the short-term inflation forecasts. Since the last meeting of the yield of the German 10-year government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations of inflation, fell by 8 bp and against this background we can expect a moderate revision of estimates for inflation. Interestingly Mario Draghi opinion regarding the euro. The euro strengthened, which has a negative impact on exporters. PMI manufacturing sector declines, and net exports in the first two months of the year rose by 25.2 billion. Euros, which is 6.66% less than the year before. In my opinion, at the end of March and April the surplus will also decline. Please Do M. Draghi attention to it today or be postponed until the next meeting? investors "in the moment" can respond positively to the press conference of the ECB, but then optimism will fade. The growth of "risk appetite" is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.
Trading recommendations for the euro, the dollar on 04/21/2016 : The players should not expect sideways trading in the range 1.1240 - 1.1370.
Forex. Forecast GBP / USD today GBP / USD 21.04.2016
According to the Briton paired with greenbacks are two reasons for the correction.
First , the profitability of UK government bonds in the credit market reduced in relation to the German and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the United Kingdom assets.
Second , yesterday's data on the labor market in Albion can not be expected today on the yield of strong retail sales data for March. The unemployment rate remained unchanged (5.1%), and the median income slightly decreased. Taking into account the negative trend indicator of consumer confidence from the Gfk conclusion that now is wait for the report within a median of forecasts with slight variations. Although the decline before the Briton quotes can make a new attack on the dollar due to the upward trend in the oil market. Investors in trading yesterday reacted positively to the release in the US crude oil inventories: inventories rose by 2 million barrels, while the market expected level of 2.2 million barrels... The difference is negligible, although Brent crude finished trading growth of quotations by 3%. Buyers use every opportunity to build long positions, and in this regard in the near future should not expect growth in oil prices to $ 47 / barrel. It is worth noting that in the GBP / USD pair we are talking about a technical correction. Talk about changing an upward trend until early, as there is a dollar negative sentiment and investors before the meeting of the Fed's April 27 may arrange another wave of growth in the British stock.
Trading recommendations for the pair GBP / USD on 21/04/2016 Traders should sell the pair GBPUSD Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.4435 / 1.4475 and 1.4350 on the Target.
Forex. The forecast of the dollar against the yen today USD / JPY 21.04.2016
At yesterday's auction, Japan issued a mixed statistics. The trade balance of Japan in the first quarter 348.4 billion. Yen, although the negative balance of $ 1.379 trillion was recorded last year. yen. At the same time the volume of orders for equipment component continues to show negative dynamics - the March decline of 21.2% y / y. On the debt market after reports widened yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds.Against the background of the demand for risky assets the USDJPY shows growth for three consecutive days. In the US, the peak season for corporate reporting, and quarterly releases is uneven. Most companies are reporting a reduction in net profit, while the figure is better than expected median, causing excitement among investors. Coca-Cola reported the day before: earnings per share decreased by 5% y / y to the level of $ 0.34, exceeding the expectation of the market. Bidding ended in the "red zone" - the reduction of quotations was more than 4%. Until a new historic high on the S & P500 is 1.3%, and investors apparently set to this level. It seems that in April, traders want to drive the market as high as possible, so that in May quietly sell their assets.
Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair on 21/04/2016 : Players on the dollar with the yen today is continue to wait USD / JPY growth. As soon as the optimism of investors dries up, market participants waiting for a wave of new sales. During the trading players is to buy a pair Buy's price cut in the area of 109.50 / 109.20 and 110.10 at the close of the transaction.
Analyst « FreshForex »