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Main » 2016 » March » 17 » Forex forecast for 17/03/2016: The Fed has a dollar!
Forex forecast for 17/03/2016: The Fed has a dollar!

Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday, the US dollar weakened across the market. The Fed decided to leave key rate unchanged in the range of 0.25-0.50%. It was stated that in the current year is expected to increase the rate of two, rather than four, as previously reported. This is what has caused a sharp weakening of the dollar.



Fed President Esther George in Kansas voted for increasing rates by 0.25%, the other nine - for the preservation of the current level. The forecast was downgraded for the economy and inflation. After the speech, Janet Yellen experts talk that the Fed is preparing the ground to lower rates.



Statistics in the United States came out mixed. Index of industrial production in the US in February was 0.5% (forecast was -0.1%, previous 0.8%).


The consumer price index in the US was 0.2% in February (forecast was -0.2%, previous 0.0%). The consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy in the US in February was 0.3% (forecast was 0.2%, previous 0.3%).


The number of new houses in the US in February amounted to 1.178 million (1.153 million was forecast, the previous value 1.120 million). The number of building permits in the US in February amounted to 1.167 million (1.205 million was forecast, the previous value 1.202 million).


Market expectations for today:

On Thursday, a key event for the currency market will be a meeting of the Bank of England. Central Bank will keep rates and the amount of asset purchases at the same value. Surprises should be expected. Expected continued growth in the euro / dollar to 1.1280.


News of the day:

  • At 13:00 MSK will be released in the euro zone consumer price index for February and trade balance data for January.
  • At 15:00 MSK the Bank of England will announce a decision on the basic interest rate and the volume of asset purchases. At the same time, will go minutes of the meeting of the Central Bank of England.
  • At 15:30 MSK will leave the United States: the balance of payments for the 4th quarter, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for March.


Technical analysis:

Intraday goal: maximum - 1.1280, at least - 1.1205 (current in Asia), the closing - 1.1255.

Intraday volatility over the past 10 weeks: 103 item (4 digits).

After the meeting, HIF euro / dollar rate rose above the line U3 (MA upper limit of the channel). This line will contain the euro from strengthening. To move higher, you must stay at the current level for six hours. MA line an upward direction, so after six hours the road will be opened to 1.1280.


Analytics ALPARI


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