Forecast for May 13, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
12.00 MSK. Eurozone: The change in GDP for the 1st quarter (previous value of 0.6% q / q, the forecast of 0.6% q / q).
15.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for April (the previous value of -0.3% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).
17:00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in May (the previous value of 89.0, forecast 89.9).
Forex forecast euro dollar EUR / USD today 05/13/2016
Players of the currency market the euro dollar pair, now in the first half of trading should pay attention to the report on the euro area GDP in the first quarter.
The negative dynamics of indicators PMI manufacturing and services sectors point to the fact that today we should not expect the release of data better than the consensus forecast. The industrial sector is experiencing difficulties on a stronger euro, as the competitiveness of products in foreign markets decreased. Emerging economies continue to show a slowdown in growth and rise in product repels potential buyers.
Reduced net exports of Germany and France once again confirms the negative trend.
In the second half of the trading day, traders will pay attention to the data from America. The situation in this release is as confusing.
The first indicators of consumer confidence and the University of Michigan CB in April dropped to lowest levels of the year.
Second, in the ISM report for April it pointed to the decline in employment in the retail sector, which indicates a negative trend. Although there are positive factors: the growth of incomes of citizens can count on the output index better than consensus forecast, against the background of a low base, since the beginning of this year, retail sales declined by 0.69%. This is indicated by the April report on car sales (this component is included in the Retail Sales), which pleased investors by strong data. Credit markets show increasing optimism about European assets: the yield on 10-year German government bonds grow in relation to the English and American.In view of these factors in the first half of the day should not expect growth in the euro, and in the afternoon the strengthening of greenbacks.
Trading recommendations for EUR / USD : now players on the euro should not expect an American trade in a sideways channel 1,1350-1,1450.
Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD today 13/05/2016
The Bank of England yesterday in the inflation report pointed to a slowdown in economic growth in Albion during the period from 2016 to 2018. It's not surprising, since previous reviews more than once observed negative trends in the UK economy. Mark Carney reiterated that the British withdrawal from the ES costly to the economy - the recession can not be avoided. It was noted that the first increase in the discount rate may occur in 2018. It is worth noting that only a few months ago in the financial circles of Britain were talking about tightening monetary policy in 2017. Thus, the regulator downgraded, and it is a negative factor for the sterling. The dynamics of the commodity market also do not leave unattended metals, which are usually the first to unfold, showed the weakness in yesterday's trading, which indicates a possible profit on oil. Brent from the beginning of the trading week, added 6% and for the weekend, investors may go into the cache, since quotes are at a maximum in the last 6 months. Bearish sentiment on oil traditionally put pressure on the pair GBP / USD.
Trading recommendations for GBP / USD : today for the sterling traders with greenbacks in forex trading is to sell a couple Sell on rate rise to levels of 1.4470 / 1.4515 and to close the transaction at the level of 1.4395.
Forex forecast of the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 05/13/2016
Today, dollar traders with the Japanese currency in the first half of trading worth waiting for the depreciation of USD / JPY due to lower investors' appetite for risk. " On the stock markets of Europe and North America in yesterday's trading growth leaders were "defensive" sectors of public services and consumer products, which indicates pessimism investors on corporate securities. Care of risky assets will support hens yen as funding currency. As noted earlier, the players in the second half of the session, from the United States should wait for a moderately positive report on retail sales for April. It is worth noting that today released another major release - University of Michigan sentiment index of consumers. Perhaps this report will come out slightly worse than consensus prognoza.Aprelskie data on average earnings showed an increase, thus increasing consumer activity. But, since the beginning of this year in the United States has slowed the growth rate of private consumption. In this regard, it is worth expect a growth rate higher than the previous month, but below the consensus. Thus, in the second half of trading greenbacks can get support.
Trading recommendations for USD / JPY The : Today market participants on the pair USD / JPY, worth the wait trades sideways 108.30 -109.30.
analyst « FreshForex »