Forecast exchange market October 8, 2015 EUR / USD
At yesterday's forex togas greenbacks again able to continue the growth of the major currencies - the dollar index closed at 95.65 USDX. The euro in an American pair EUR / USD on the background of the expansion of the spread in yield of US and German government bonds closed the day with losses of 0.3%. Sterling exchange rate with the dollar on the back of strong data on industrial production in the UK in August GBP / USD closed plus 0.59%. Dollar currency in the pair with Japan USD / JPY on the background of increasing demand for "risky assets" finished trading in the red 0.2%.
Foreign exchange market main events for today:
02.50 MSK. Japan: Change in orders for machinery and equipment in August (the previous value of -3.6% m / m forecast 3.1% m / m).
02.50 MSK. Japan: Total current account balance for August (the previous value of ¥ 1808.6B; forecast ¥ 1226.9V).
14.00 MSK. United Kingdom: Summary of monetary policy.
15.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in August (the previous value of 277K; forecast 274K).
21.00 MSK. US: Publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting.
The euro dollar is the EUR / USD today 08/10/2015
In the euro dollar today, forex traders should wait for the predominance of sellers. It should begin with a review of trading on the bond market. The yield on 10-year German government bonds is reduced in relation to their American and British counterparts, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the Old World, and thus, will not contribute to strong demand for Euro-currency. Released yesterday, data on industrial production in Germany disappointed investors. America is on the contrary, has reported an increase in the volume of mortgage lending. Reduced rates on 30-year mortgages to 0.09% caused an increase in demand for mortgage loans, which indicates an upward trend in the property market, and a positive impact on the US economy. Another negative for the currency of the Eurozone - the growth of "risk appetite" among investors.Demand for high-yield stocks and cross-rates puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. Do not leave without attention and the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve. FED meeting held before the release of negative data on the labor market in September, and on this background, we should not expect a negative reaction from investors to this event. Since the last FOMC meeting was accompanied by economic projections and press conferences D. Yellen, the market is almost completely played this event. Of course the reaction to "minute Fed" will be, but it will be short-lived.
Forex recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD): Today during the day traders should open Sell position on the growth rate of the euro to 1.1272 / 1.1318 and take profit at 1.1215.
Levels euro dollar today: support levels 1.1216 - 1.1155 and resistance levels: 1.1269-1.1318.
Pound Dollar GBP / USD forecast for today 08/10/2015
According to the British in tandem with the US dollar today is worth waiting for the auction trade in a sideways channel. Sterling in the first half of trading is likely to be in demand amid rising profitability British government bonds relative to their German and US counterparts. On the debt market for six consecutive days, a decline of negative differential return of 10-year-old British and American government bonds that investors increase the attractiveness of investment in assets of Albion. Yesterday's positive data from Albion on industrial production for August, more participants cheered the bond market. Against this background, the buyers will try to push quotes up to 1.5340 / 1.5360, where one can expect profit-taking on long positions amid falling oil prices.Yesterday the US Department of Energy has reported an increase in crude oil and gasoline. Both figures are well above the consensus forecast, with gasoline stocks rising for five consecutive weeks. Of particular note is the growth in crude oil reserves in the terminal Cushing, after five weeks of decline in a row. This is not surprising, since October 1 in the United States ended with the driving season and now we will see a decrease in demand for oil products. Today, perhaps we can expect the correction of grade Brent to 50.5 $ / barrel, which would support the dollar, as the price of oil is denominated in US currency.
Forex traders recommendation pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD): Today, traders pounds against the dollar probably waiting flat is in the range 1.5235 -1.5360.
The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5315 - 1.5271 and resistance levels: 1.5351- 1.5427.
Dollar Yen USD / JPY forecast for today 08/10/2015
Today, traders traders for the dollar against the yen in the first half of trading on the foreign exchange market will be interested in the output of the two reports from Japan. First, data on orders for machinery and equipment, against the background of the PMI manufacturing sector, who in August set a maximum for the last six months, market participants may please his positive. In most cases the increase in orders for machinery and equipment is the demand on the stock exchange in Tokyo, and the growth of carry trade deals is putting pressure on the yen as a funding currency. Data on current account transactions on the contrary, may disappoint investors output data worse than the consensus forecast, due to lower exports in the last month of August at 11.7%, which contributed to an increase in the trade deficit to 569 billion. Yen. Considering these data, it is probably worth waiting pressure on the Japanese currency and the increase in the dollar, the yen USD / JPY. The dynamics of the credit markets and is now also on the side of buyers: the yield spread of US and Japanese government bonds expanded, increasing the attractiveness of investment in assets States. It is worth noting the increase in demand for risky assets. Yesterday the major stock markets in Asia, Europe and North America, closed in positive territory. High-yielding currency crosses are also in demand among investors, which indicates an increase in operations carry trade, and will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.
Forex recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY): Today, traders on the dollar against the yen is open Buy position on the depreciation of the dollar against the yen 119.70 / 119.40 and 120.25 at Target.
Support and resistance levels the dollar, the yen today: support levels: 119.29 - 118.98 and resistance levels: 120.09 - 120.36.