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Main » 2015 » October » 6 » Forex forecast for 07/10/2015: Correction of the dollar has not yet completed
Forex forecast for 07/10/2015: Correction of the dollar has not yet completed

Forecast exchange market October 7, 2015 EUR / USD

The euro dollar The EUR / USD forex trading yesterday after the release of weak data on the US trade balance for August closed by growth of 0.76%. Pound Dollar the GBP / USD rapid rise in prices for Brent closed plus 0.56%. Dollar Yen USD / JPY trading on the currency market held in a narrow Fleta 120.10 -120.56 against moderate demand for "risky assets".



Foreign exchange market, in the event that one should pay attention today:


09.30 MSK. Japan: Press Conference of the Bank of Japan.

11.30 MSK. UK: Industrial Production for August (the previous value of -0.4% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).

17.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in August.


The euro dollar EUR / USD forecast for today 07/10/2015

Today in the US and Europe release of important data is expected. Against this background, the dynamics of trade have identified several factors.

Firstly, the credit markets are still a decline in the yield differential on 10-year US and German government bonds, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the Old World. The debt market in the United States still can not move away from the weak employment data which emerged on Friday October 2nd. The yield on 10-year bonds since the beginning of the week grew by 7 bps to the level of 2.04%, but this reduction is not too much, since before the last FOMC meeting were traded with a yield of 2.25%. It must be said that the yield on 10-year German shares grows towards their British counterparts that a positive effect on the stock of cross-rate EUR / GBP in general and support a single currency.

Secondly, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates will take in 2016 cheered buyers on the commodity market. Industrial metals like ineft show the last three trading days show growth that greenbacks negative factor, since the cost of raw materials denominated in currencies States. 

Forex recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD): forex trading today on the euro together with the American traders should open a Buy position on the depreciation of the euro to 1.1240 / 1.1205 and take profit at 1.1305.

The levels of support and resistance EUR USD today: support levels 1.1216 - 1.1155 and resistance levels: 1.1269-1.1303.

Forex recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD)


Pound Dollar GBP / USD forecast for today 07/10/2015

Today at auction for the British currency forex fundamental sentiment is mixed. On the one hand, it is likely to wait for the release of industrial production worse than the consensus forecast, which will put pressure on the Briton. The leading indicator, PMI production sphere of England, shows a steady downward trend, which signals the release of weak data. This is not surprising, because the revaluation of sterling in relation to the European currency (the currency of the main trading partner of Albion) reduces the competitiveness of Britain in Europe and reduces the revenues of the manufacturing sector. Balance industrial orders to CBI declining for five consecutive months, which is a proof of the negative trend. On the other hand, debt and commodity market is now on the side of buyers pounds. The negative yield spread British and American government bonds declining for five consecutive days, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the United Kingdom.The price of Brent last entrenched psychological level of $ 50 / barrel, which will put pressure on the greenback.That is a significant increase in oil prices will support demand for the pound in the first half of the day. 

Forex recommendations on the pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD): Today, traders of the British in tandem with the dollar is open Buy position on the depreciation of the British to the 1.5205 / 1.5170 and 1.5270 at Target.

The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5169 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.

Forex recommendations on the pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD)


Dollar Yen USD / JPY forecast for today 07/10/2015

As the dollar yen pair today, the main event will be the announcement of the Bank of Japan meeting. Several officials in the Ministry of Finance of Japan urged the head of the Central Bank to Kuroda to expand stimulus package already at this meeting to achieve the main goal - to achieve the growth rate of inflation at 2%. At the end of the third quarter, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations of inflation, dropped by 11.4 bp and is now at its lowest level in the last 5 months. This trend reflects the "bearish" trend in the oil market, which in my opinion is not over yet, despite the short term rise in prices. When decrease in quotations of "black gold" on a new low this year, Japan's deflationary risks will increase. But now it is too early to worry - the current market price of oil is 22% above the August low. You also can not ignore the dynamics of the labor market. The growth of average earnings in conjunction with the high level of employment will contribute to an increase in personal consumption, which ultimately have a positive impact on consumer prices. In this regard, today, we do not expect changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. On the debt market the day before there was minimal change in the government bond yield differential of the United States and Japan, it does not allow to conclude that demand for US or Japanese assets. 

Forex recommendations on the dollar, the yen (USDJPY) Today during the day traders to the dollar yen pair is worth waiting for trade sideways 119.50 -120.70 

Support and resistance levels Dollar Yen: support levels: 120.09 - 119.29 and resistance levels: 120.36 - 120.73.

Forex recommendations on the dollar, the yen (USDJPY)


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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