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Main » 2016 » March » 18 » Forex forecast for 03/18/2016: EUR / USD - in the first half of trading is expected to grow
Forex forecast for 03/18/2016: EUR / USD - in the first half of trading is expected to grow

Results of the last trading day:

On Thursday, the continued weakening of the US currency in the foreign exchange market. The dollar came under a wave of selling due to the revision of the amount of the Fed raising interest rates. The dollar index fell to 94,58.Istochnik:, «In the first half of the day is expected to strengthen the euro"



The euro / dollar encountered resistance at 1.1342. Growth was limited to a pair of cross fall of the euro / pound after the announcement of the Bank of England's decision and the publication of minutes of the meeting.


The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5% and bond purchase program in the amount of 375 billion pounds. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted to keep rates. On the American statistics, no one paid any attention.

The index of leading indicators in the US in February was 0.1% (forecast was 0.2%, previous -0.2%).

business sentiment index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in the US for March was 12.4 (forecast was -2.0, the previous value of -2.8).

Balance of Payments in the United States for the IV quarter of 2015 amounted to - $ 125.3 billion (forecast was - $ 118.9 billion, the previous value - $ 129.9 billion).

Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week amounted to 265 thousand. (Forecast was 268 thousand., The previous value of 258 ths.).


Market expectations for today:

On Friday, traders attention will be directed to exit the economic data in Germany, Canada and the United States. Data came to little, so after updating the minimum dollar ahead of the weekend waiting for his correction. If this is translated into a couple of euro / dollar, then I get to rise to 1.1375 and 1.1320 before the correction to the line lb.


News of the day:

  • At 10:00 MSK Germany will release the producer price index for February.
  • At 15:30 MSK will present Canada Consumer Price Index for February, as well as inform of change in the volume of retail sales for January.
  • At 17:00 MSK will release US consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan for March.
  • At 18:00 an address by a member of the FOMC Rosengren.                                            
  • At 21:00 an address by a member of the FOMC Bullard. 


Technical analysis:

Intraday goal: maximum - 1.1375 minimum - 1.1300 / 06, the closing - 1.1320. 
Intraday volatility over the past 10 weeks: 103 item (4 digits).

I did not want today to consider the strengthening of the euro to 1.1375, as the price is on the U3 line. On the other hand, there is news that could expand pair. Also there is no bearish divergence between price and indicator stock. In this connection, I consider the projected growth of the EUR / USD pair to 1.1375 and then back up to 1.1320. There are risks fall to 1.1290 before firing up.


Analytics ALPARI


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