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Main » 2016 » March » 16 » Forex forecast for 03/16/2016: Euro dollar stabilized at 1.11 before the meeting of HIF
Forex forecast for 03/16/2016: Euro dollar stabilized at 1.11 before the meeting of HIF

Results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday, EUR / USD spent the day in a sideways range of 50 points.Sessional least formed at the level of 1.1070. The single currency was supported by the main cross-country euro / pound, which rose sharply after the publication Telegraph poll results.



The survey results showed that 49% of respondents want the United Kingdom withdrew from the EU staff, 47% - to stay. The survey involved 823 man. The survey was conducted via telephone calls in the period from 11 to 14 March this year. The referendum is scheduled for June 23. The survey is a good tool for manipulating the exchange rate, as its results are constantly changing.


US data came out mixed. Retail sales were better than expected, while the previous value was revised heavily downwards. The index of business activity in New York exceeded expectations. Also worth noting is the growth of the underlying index of industrial prices on an annualized basis. The euro / dollar has stabilized at 1.11.

Market expectations for today:

Today all the attention of market participants will be focused on the meeting of the HIF. It is expected that the Fed will leave rates on hold. After the meeting a press conference Dzh.Yellen. If it will make hard statements about the state of the economy and the prospects for a rate hike, the dollar strengthened on the day, the euro weakened. Any hint of a delay cycle of rate increases or easing of monetary policy will cause the fall of the dollar on the entire market.

21:00 MSK expect continued lateral movement. Keep an eye on the dynamics of EUR / GBP cross. It is in line U3. After yesterday's rally, he can go into a correctional phase and cause a wave of euro selling in tandem with the US dollar.

News of the day:

· At 12:30 MSK Britain report the change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February, as well as on the level of average earnings and the level ILO unemployment rate for January.

· At 15:30 MSK Canada is to publish data on changes in the volume of manufacturing shipments and the volume of transactions with foreign securities in January. US report on the number of bookmarks of new foundations and the volume of building permits issued in February, and will release the consumer price index for February.Britain - the annual budget.

· At 16:15 MSK US will report on changes in the volume of industrial production for February.

· At 17:30 MSK will be released in the US report to change the oil (according to the Ministry of Energy).

· At 21:00 MSK the US Federal Reserve will announce a decision on the basic interest rate, will be released economic forecast and the FOMC accompanying statement.

· At 21:30 MSK will be a press conference by the FOMC.

Technical analysis:

The euro / dollar has stabilized at the level of 1.11 at the balance sheet line (in hour period - the middle line with the period of 55). Prior to the announcement of the Fed meeting results from the outset the euro is expected at the current level.

Can the euro to 21:00 MSK strongly deviate from the current level? Can. The statements of officials at the rate surveys, hearings, thin market before the important data, all of these factors can cause sharp fluctuations in the market. 


Analytics ALPARI


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