Foreign Exchange Market on March 11, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Balance of visible trade in January (previous value - £ 9917M; forecast - £ 10250M).
The forecast of the euro against the dollar today EUR / USD 11.03.2016
On the eve of the ECB delivered its verdict and the decision of the monetary authorities has surprised market participants. The discount rate was reduced to 0% and the QE program immediately increased to 20 billion. Euro. ECB significantly lowered inflation forecast for this year from 1% to 0.1%. There were also revised estimates of GDP for the year 2016-2018.
Monetary authorities noted contraction in inflationary pressures, however, rejected the possible threat of deflation. This view of monetary control on the outlook for the economy is a negative factor for the currency, but on Thursday, we saw strong growth in the euro quotations. What is the reason? The main reason - a flight of capital from the "risky assets" and the demand for "safe haven", which include the single European currency.The fact that the sale of "risk assets" will be observed throughout 2016, we have already mentioned in our webinars. Investors are scared slowdown in the world economy. At first, the news shocked all of China, currently the ECB points out, that in the old world will experience an economic slowdown. However, now I would not definitely say that the EUR / USD rushed up to test the February high (1.1376). Current levels are attractive for the opening of the medium-term short positions. Even if the US Federal Reserve will not be in the next few months to raise the discount rate, the further easing of monetary policy of the ECB still leaves investors with no choice but to buy the dollar on pullbacks. It should be noted the fact that the decline in the euro will have a positive impact on the prospects for economic growth in the euro area. The exporters will be primarily in the win. On Thursday, Germany published a report on the trade balance for January, where it was recorded by reducing the surplus to 14.46% compared to the same period last year. Today is better to refrain from opening the position, because the chances, both in the growth of quotations, and at approximately the same reduction.
Forex recommendations on a pair euro dollar today 03.11.2016 : Player euros greenbacks worth waiting for the flat within the 1.1130-1.1280 range.
Pound Dollar forecast for today GBP / USD 11.03.2016
In the first half of trading on the forex players to pound with bucks is worth paying attention to the data on the trade balance in Albion in January. Reducing the cross-rate EUR / GBP at the end of October and November, of course, it has had a negative impact on exporters. Nevertheless, moderate growth in the volume of industrial production for the first month of the year can expect to increase in exports compared to December. In January, the Bank of England's gold reserves increased by 527 million. Pounds, which confirms the positive trend, as it indicates the absence of strong capital outflows from the country. In this regard, a moderately positive report on the trade balance will support the British currency. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the market of "black gold". Oil second week ignores weak data on US stocks, which indicates the presence of strong buyers market. Now Brent oil is consolidating near the psychological support level of $ 40 / barrel in the near future, in my opinion, we can expect the uptrend. This factor, in turn, will have a negative impact on the dollar, since energy costs are denominated in US currency.
Forex trading recommendations for the pair pound dollar today 03.11.2016 : traders should buy the pair Buy on lowering prices to levels 1.4250 / 1.4220 at 1.4300 and Take.
The dollar against the yen today forecast USD / JPY on 03/11/2016
On the last trading day of the week is expected publication of important macroeconomic statistics and, in this regard, the bidding will be determined by the mood on the world's leading stock exchanges. The Japanese yen is still very sensitive to changes in "risk appetite". The day before, after the ECB press conference on the financial markets there was a demand for "safe" assets (gold, euro and yen) and the sale of "risky" assets, which indicates the presence of a strong down trend for the pair USD / JPY. Now it is too early to say that we have entered a new wave of capital flight from the "risky" assets. It is possible that this trend is corrective in nature, after the US Federal Reserve meeting on March 16, we will again see growth in both the stock markets and on commodity exchanges. Now one thing is clear, at least in the Asian trading session the stock markets can be expected dominance of "bearish" sentiment on the stock markets and in this regard, the continuation of the downward trend in the pair USD / JPY. As a maximum, the sale on the stock markets may continue throughout the day and we will see a strong decrease in quotations of the currency pair.
Forex trading recommendations for the dollar against the yen today 03/11/2016 : The players on the dollar with the yen should sell the pair Sell on rate rise to 113.05 / 113.45 and target at 112.35.
Analyst « FreshForex »