The foreign exchange market on February 12, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
13.00 m ck. Eurozone: The change in GDP for the 4th quarter (the previous value of 0.3% q / q, 1.6% y / y; the forecast of 0.3% q / q, 1.5% y / y).
16.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for January (the previous value of -0.1% m / m forecast 0.1% m / m).
The euro dollar today EUR / USD Forecast 02/12/2016
The dynamics of trading on a pair euro dollar today will determine the euro zone's GDP, and "investors' appetite for risk." We begin our analysis with the first indicator.
For the first nine months of last year, GDP growth rate amounted to 1.79%. Leading indicators released by the Markit PMI indicate that the growth rate in the fourth quarter showed a slight decrease. The unemployment rate fell by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which allowed to increase the trade surplus. In this regard, today we can expect the release of data at the level of 1.6% -1.7% y / y, it is better to the consensus and will support the single European currency. Capital flight from "risky assets" continues. On the eve of the world's leading stock markets closed in the "red zone": reduction of quotations ranged from 1.5% to 3%. Worst of all himself again feel the action of the banking sector: the paper Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Societe Generale slipped by 6.14%, 7.1% and 12.57%, respectively. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the credit markets: the yield on 10-year government bonds in Germany is growing in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investment in European assets.
Trading recommendations for the pair euro dollar today 02.12.2016 : Players on the euro with the American today is worth buying a pair Buy on lowering prices to levels 1.1315 / 1.1270 and targets at 1.1405.
The pound against the dollar today GBP / USD forecast for 02/12/2016
Today traders are three reasons to sell on the growth of the British.
First , the debt market observed decline of profitability of British 10-year government bonds in the securities of Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion, and will put pressure on the pound.
Second , as already noted, in the first half of the session is to wait for the positive for the euro area GDP data for the 4th quarter, it will support the demand for cross-rate EUR / GBP. What traditionally has a negative impact on quotations of the British currency in the pair with greenbacks.
Third, at the auction in the US should not expect positive retail sales in the US, it is also playing into the hands of the sellers of sterling Poll Conference Board pointed to the increase in optimism among households in the background of the positive trend in the labor market. The growth of real incomes of the population contributes to private consumption expenditure. In the first half of winter, Americans are actively made expensive purchases - recorded growth in sales of cars and real estate.
Trading recommendations for the pair pound dollar today 02.12.2016 : Players pound with a "green" today in the forex market is a couple Sell on growth rate pound dollar to 1.4495 / 1.4545 and close the position at 1.4380.
The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY forecast for 02/12/2016
Yesterday, financial markets in Japan were closed on the occasion of the national holiday, although this did not prevent market participants to increase short positions actively. Overstock USD / JPY pair has provoked the flight of capital from "risky" assets. The Japanese yen is a funding №1 for carry trade operations and "investors' appetite for risk" traditionally has a significant impact on it. Already, we can conclude that this trend will be observed throughout the 2016 - lull periods are followed by periods of panic. After rapid growth in the world economy in the last five years, when the stability of the markets prevailed, with few exceptions, many traders have already forgotten that this increased volatility and changes in the bids by 1% for 30 minutes. On the agenda in 2016 following the global issues now: slowdown in China's GDP, the decline in corporate profits in the United States, as well as the problems of the European banking sector. And if the first two points are cyclical in nature - the growth of China and US corporate earnings economy can not be eternal, periodically it happens correction, the third point is structural. Leading European banks have forgotten the sad consequences of the recent financial crisis of 2008 and continue to operate with high leverage, gaining itself the balance of low-quality assets, which on the one hand, implies a high yield, but involve high risks. The thirst for profit apparently again put at the heart of European bankers. As noted earlier, in the second half of the day can be expected to yield a positive release of retail sales in the US, which may cause "bears" begin to take profits on short positions before the weekend, and thereby cause a rebound of quotations.
Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair today 02/12/2016 : forex trader in the dollar yen pair is now selling a pair Sell on price increases to 112.55 / 113.15 and take profit at 111.50.
Analyst « FreshForex »