The foreign exchange market on February 10, 2016, EUR / USD
Trading forex news today:
12:30 MSK. UK: Industrial Production for December (the previous value of -0.7% m / m; the forecast -0.1% m / m).
18.00 MSK. USA: Statement by the head of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Janet Yellen.
18.30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department.
Today, the euro-dollar exchange rate EUR / USD forecast for 02/10/2016
Yesterday's weak report on industrial production and trade balance for December in Germany once again confirms the hypothesis that srednesroke strong growth of quotations of the euro should not count.
The volume of industrial production decreased by 2.2%, while year growth of 0.8% was recorded earlier in 2015. In 2013, the rate of growth in the industry was at a level of 3.8%. In this regard, we have seen a steady negative trend and the economy is not highly profitable to observe the growth of the euro. Now the market is in a correction phase for the dollar, but to bet on a collapse of the US currency is very dangerous. In the morning the bidding will determine the "risk appetite" of investors. The day before, we again observed on risky assets sales: copper quotes slipped by 3%, leading stock markets finished trading lower quotations in the range of 1-2%. Shares of Deutsche Bank has lost 4.2% - decrease in quotations for the sixth week in a row going on. In this regard, in the first half of the day we can expect the uptrend on the single European currency. In the afternoon will determine the trend of Janet Yellen, who will serve in Congress. Investors will expect from it on the monetary policy signals. On the one hand, the decline in exports, a drop in energy prices and the slowdown in China's GDP may force the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates in the first half of 2016. The yield on 2-year Treasury note, which reflects expectations for Fed rates dropped by 38 basis points since the beginning of the year, confirming this trend. Against this background, we see the growth of quotations of the EUR / USD in the range of 50-70. On the other hand, a strong labor market, namely the unemployment rate 4.9%, and the growth of real incomes of the population, could be the foundation for the core inflation indicator and not its level is lowered below 2%. For this FED may also be sufficient to increase the rate of 0.5% for a year. In this regard, investors may begin to take profits on long positions and we will see a pullback to 70-100 n.
Trading recommendations for the euro dollar today 02.10.2016 : Players euro with the dollar worth waiting trading in a sideways range 1.1230 -1.1350.
Today, the sterling exchange rate against the US dollar GBP / USD forecast for 02/10/2016
Yesterday's data on the UK trade balance may be somewhat cool down "bears." At the end of 2015 the negative balance of trade has left 125 billion. Pounds, which is 1.53% more than the year before. However, in the fourth quarter of last year the negative balance decreased by 0.87% compared to the same period in 2014. This trend was made possible on the background of a smooth weakening pound against the euro (the currency of the main trading partner of the United Kingdom) during the second half of 2015. Today, in the morning, you should pay attention to the publication of data on industrial production for December. Positive dynamics of the Markit PMI can expect to yield data slightly better than the consensus forecast, which will have a short-term support of the British currency. In the afternoon, all investors will be focused on the speech of Fed and as noted earlier - there are two scenarios and trade their need for data output fact.
Trading recommendations for pound dollar pair today 02/10/2016: The players should buy the pair Pound Dollar Buy on lowering prices to levels 1.4430 / 1.4400 and take profit at 1.4480.
Today, the dollar against the yen USD / JPY forecast for 02/10/2016
Today the foreign exchange market the dollar yen pair is formed by a mixed background. On the one hand, on Tuesday again observed the flight of capital from the "risky assets", which is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency. On the other hand, in spite of the positive background - in the second half of the last of the day USD / JPY pair was not able to escape to new lows. Apparently the market is already overloaded with "shorts" and we can not exclude the correction. The dynamics of the debt market also points to a possible strengthening of the dollar: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds expanded, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. In US trading session watching carefully the comments of the US Federal Reserve - speech by Janet Yellen could easily reverse the trend, or on the contrary, strengthened.
Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair today 02/10/2016 : Traders at the auction on the dollar with the yen currency market should not expect trade in flat 114.30 -115.50.
Analyst « FreshForex »