Foreign Exchange Market February 4, 2016, EUR / USD
News forex traders today:
15.00 MSK. United Kingdom: Summary of monetary policy.
15.00 MSK. UK: Report of the Bank of England on inflation.
16.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in January (previous value of 278K; forecast 286K).
The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD Forecast 02/04/2016
The negative forecasts for the development of the US economy this year, begin to make excuses. The report from the ISM, released this week, the forex market has forced to doubt the Fed raising interest rates at the March meeting.
The yield on 2-year Treasuries continues its peak, against this background, dollar buyers remain trumps ....Fans of US currency is now just do not catch hold: economic data from America's negative commodity market shows growth, traditionally a negative impact on the stock of greenbacks. In yesterday's trading the EUR / USD set a fresh 3-month high and the chances of continued growth in the euro currency are high enough. "Bearish" sentiment on the world's leading stock exchanges will only strengthen the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The negative report of the Bank of England's inflation can cause a strong demand in the cross-rate EUR / GBP, which embolden buyers euros.
Trading recommendations for the euro dollar today 02/04/2016: Player grinbekm euros worth buying a pair Buy's price rises to 1.1080 / 1.1050 and target at 1.1150.
Pound against the US dollar today GBP / USD Forecast 02/04/2016
Quotes Briton at auction on Wednesday, reached the 45th figure in the background is moderately positive data on the service sector PMI England. It should be noted that the figure for January is lower than the annual average, it is not possible to calculate the acceleration of growth in the leading sector of the economy of Britain. In the forex market immediately there were rumors that the Bank of England this year could go on raising interest rates, as in the forecasts based control, including on the releases from Markit. Allegedly, the positive dynamics of the service sector PMI can count on tightening monetary policy. Is such a scenario? Answer was found today in the afternoon, when the monetary authorities will publish its quarterly inflation report. Since the publication of the last quarterly release, inflation November 5, 2015 the yield of two-year UK government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations for interest rates fell by 28 basis points Against this background, it is too early to talk about a possible tightening of monetary policy. Inflation expectations are falling on the background of lower energy prices and the slowdown in growth of average earnings. The volume of retail trade in 2015 increased by 2.49%, against 4.32% a year earlier. The slowdown in consumer spending clearly confirms there is no need to raise interest rates. Moreover, the growth rate in the current environment will facilitate the flow of capital, against the ultrasoft monetary policy at their neighbors from the ECB. This factor will eventually cause a rise in the British against the euro. Confederation of British Industry has repeatedly pointed to the fact that the economy runs out of steam and is suffering from a strong pound. Taking into account, the above factors, today is probably worth waiting for negative comments from the leadership of the Bank of England on inflation and GDP in 2016, which would put pressure on quotes pounds.
Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today 02/04/2016: forex traders on the pound to the dollar is selling a pair GBPUSD Sell on growth rate to levels 1.4660 / 1.4690 and Target at around 1.4540.
The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY Forecast 02/04/2016
On hand sellers dollar yen pair plays a lack of demand for "risky assets". Market participants are concerned that the US GDP in 2016 may grow less than 2.4% - such forecast was voiced at the December meeting of the FED.These concerns are caused by a weak report on the ISM index for the manufacturing sector and the service sector. In the previous review noted the fact traders ignored positive news for the stock market: positive corporate releases and decrease in government bond yields. This trend is very negative for the market, because if not, who want to buy on good news, then at the slightest negative background there is plenty willing to get rid of the corporate sector. In Europe, at yesterday's auction worst we feel the action of the banking sector: the paper Societe Generale, Barclays and Deutsche Bank has lost 2.99%, 4.69% and 6.02%. When investors get rid of bank stocks - trouble is inevitable! The US stock market a protective housing sector is still among the leaders of growth and is positioning investors points to a continuation of the downward trend of the index S & P500.Thus, reducing the "risk appetite" will contribute to the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency in transactions carry trade.
Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today 02/04/2016: Players of the currency market is to sell the dollar yen pair Sell on price increase to 117.65 / 118.15 and 117.00 on the take.