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Main » 2016 » February » 2 » Forex forecast for 02/03/2016 Traders - the focus of reports on PMI
Forex forecast for 02/03/2016 Traders - the focus of reports on PMI

Currency market forecast for February 3, 2016, EUR / USD

News forex traders today:

12.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the services sector in January (the previous value of 55.5, forecast 55.4).

16.15 MSK. US: Change in the number of employees from ADP in January (previous value of 257K; forecast 191K).

18.00 MSK. USA: A composite index for the ISM non-production sphere in January (the previous value of 55.3, forecast 55.2).

18.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy.

The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD Forecast 02/03/2016

Yesterday's data on employment in the euro area in December may cheer the "bull" on the field testing of the tenth figure today, in the event of weak data on the ISM index for the services sector.



Unemployment in Europe in 2015 decreased by 0.8%, to the level of 10.4%, this is a clear reflection of the loose monetary policy of the ECB. The low rate of the euro and cheap liquidity contribute to the development of the real economy. In America, by contrast ISM manufacturing for three consecutive months below 50%. The last time the ISM Manufacturing PMI for three months was 50% below the level in 2009, ie, during the period of recovery after the recession. Against this background, we get the first alarm. The changes of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the last three months shows a downward trend, and if today, the final mark will be at the level of 54.2, it is necessary to open to buy the pair Buy. This report is futile to predict - you must trade data only upon publication. On the debt market and an increase in optimism: the yield on 10-year German government bonds is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the Old World.


Recommendations for the euro dollar today 02/03/2016:  Traders on the euro dollar today if at 18.00 MSK.the composite index for the ISM non-manufacturing sphere show the value of 54.2 or less, it is worth buying a pair of EUR / USD Buy with the purpose of paragraph 50. from the current level.

 Recommendations for the euro dollar today


The pound against the dollar today GBP / USD forecast for 2/3/2016

As noted earlier - the market can ignore a weak PMI report on the construction sector of the United Kingdom.Total Score dropped to the lowest level since August 2013, while the negative market reaction to the release was purely symbolic. Probably in forex came strong buyers who are increasing "Long" in the drawdown? You should not rule out such a scenario, as releases of PMI manufacturing sector in Britain and America, which came out on Monday, indicate that the last two months of consecutive performance differential shifted in favor of Britain. However, annual GDP growth of both economies is playing into the hands of the sellers pounds. In 2015, GDP grew by Albion 2.17%, against growth of 2.85% in 2014, in the same period the rate of growth in the US amounted to 2.38% and 2.42%. In England, the slowdown in economic growth is stronger than on the other side of the ocean, it has traditionally been a negative factor for the currency. Against this background, the point of this question put today's report on the service sector PMI for the UK, which will be released in the middle of trading in Europe. If the final figure will be published above the level of 56.7, it is worth buying a pair Buy. In the credit markets, the yield of British 10-year government bonds is reduced in relation to the German and American, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of the Kingdom and for the British is negative. 

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today 02/03/2016: Players pound with greenbacks today if at 12.30 MSK. PMI index for the services sector shows the value of 56.7 or less, it is worth buying a pair GBPUSD Buy with the objectives of 50 p. from the current level.

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair for today


The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY Forecast 02/03/2016

Buyers dollar yen pair is not much time for development upside. Who formed negative expectations for Friday's US labor market report, and if pessimism is justified, the traders waiting for a depreciation of the greenback and the elimination of positions carry trade. Both factors support the demand for the Japanese yen. Against this background, buyers USDJPY pair should bring the situation under control, the pair USD / JPY today should show a steady upward trend. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds  in yesterday's trading, which reflects investors' expectations for interest rates the Fed has set a fresh low for the last twelve weeks. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year yield fell 30 bp Short-term debt securities and stocks traditionally compete for investors' funds. If the yield increases - an influx of capital in the credit markets and capital outflows from the stock market and vice versa. Against this background, the conclusion that the decrease in the yield on treasury "two-year" should also encourage buyers in the US stock market at the opening of long positions. This factor, in turn, will push the Japanese yen as a funding currency №1 operations carry trade. But, as already noted, today the ISM index for the services sector to disappoint market participants, in the midst of trading in the US, the dollar yen pair will be a predominance of bearish sentiment. In this context, it is reasonable to liquidate long positions before the release of the ISM. 

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today 02/03/2016: Player buck with the yen now trading on the forex market is to buy a pair Buy's price reduction at the level 120.10 / 119.90 and 121.30 at Target.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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