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Main » 2016 » January » 20 » Forex forecast for 01/21/2016: Draghi deprived trumps euro / dollar!
Forex forecast for 01/21/2016: Draghi deprived trumps euro / dollar!

Foreign Exchange Market on January 21, 2016, EUR / USD

News forex traders today:

16.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB press conference.

18.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy in January (previous value 0,234M; forecast 3,000M).



Today, the euro against the dollar EUR / USD forecast for 01/21/2016


The euro against the dollar can not rise above the tenth of the figure, which indicates the presence of strong "bears" for the euro. Despite significant sell-off in global stock markets since the beginning of the year - the euro was able to gain a foothold in the symbolic 0.5%. Reducing "risk appetite" is the demand for the euro as a funding currency. However, the strong rise in share price in EUR / USD pair has occurred. On the contrary, in the 1.10 observed several times how important applications are processed for sale. Who are these mysterious sellers euro and what are their goals? Probably today tgroki forex wait negative comments on inflation expectations from Mario Draghi, and in this regard, actively increasing short positions. The cost of Brent crude at yesterday's auction fell to the level of $ 28 / barrel, the lowest since January. This factor adds to the ECB's management of headache and today, at a press conference Mario Draghi can expect a reduction in forecasts for CPI. Against this backdrop, traders will prefer to not only get rid of the pair EUR / USD, but also actively to close long positions in the cross-rate EUR / GBP, which is already nine weeks in a row shows growth of quotations. During this time, the cross-rate rose by 9.9% and the fixing of the "Long" will increase pressure on the euro against the dollar. But the flight of capital from the "risky assets" in short term may support the euro in the first half of the day. 

Recommendations traders on the euro dollar today: Players forex euro should sell an American couple Sell on growth to levels of 1.0975 / 1.1015 and a target at 1.0890.

Recommendations traders on the euro dollar today


Today the pound against the dollar GBP / USD forecast for 01/21/2016

Players of the currency market today, there are two reasons to buy British.

First, yesterday's data on the unemployment rate in November by Albion signals that the British economy is still too early to write off. Moreover, the devaluation of the pound against the euro and the dollar will boost exports, which have a positive impact on GDP in the current year. This factor contributed to the reduction in the yield differential of US and British government bonds on the debt market, which may give rise to profit taking on short positions.

Second, as already noted, today, in the second half of the session is waiting for lower stock of cross-rate EUR / GBP, which has a positive impact on the value of sterling in greenbacks. Do not leave without vnimaniyay and report on the real incomes of the population in the United States in December. At the end of 2015 the growth rate of real average earnings amounted to 1.54%, while the previous year was recorded an increase of 2.02%.The reduction in revenue is a negative factor for both GDP and currencies. 

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today as traders on the Briton paired with greenbacks worth buying the pound / dollar Buy's decline to 1.4135 / 1.4105 and 1.4225 at Target.

Recommendations for the pound dollar pair today


Today, the dollar against the yen USD / JPY forecast for 01/21/2016

The Japanese currency strengthened early this year by 2.9% - however, signals the completion of decrease in pair did not arrive. Against this backdrop, traders should use a short-term increase in the dollar, the yen to build positions short positions. After a pause on Tuesday, yesterday, market participants once again rushed to get rid of "risky assets". The Japanese yen is a funding currency # 1, and the elimination of carry trade positions traditionally positive impact on the yen. Other protective asset - gold on Wednesday and felt fine, which again confirms the reduction of "risk appetite". Shares of the banking sector continued to incur significant losses on the eve of Sberbank has lost 3.29%, Barclays at 4.13% and Deutsche Bank 6.04%. In periods of volatility in the financial markets, shares of banks have traditionally feel very bad. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the credit markets. The yield on 10-year US government bonds lower against the Japanese, which also reduces the attractiveness of investing in the assets of States. 

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today as traders on the dollar with the yen should sell a couple Sell on price increases to the levels of 116.90 / 117.30 and closed at 116.20 transaction.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»


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