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Main » 2016 » September » 8 » Forex Forecast EUR / USD on 09/08/2016 Traders await Mario Draghi speech
Forex Forecast EUR / USD on 09/08/2016 Traders await Mario Draghi speech



Results of the last trading day:


On Wednesday, the euro / dollar closed slightly down. The price of the US session, update the maximum at which returned to the level of 1.1238. Jump up was caused by the growth of cross-rate euro / pound in response to the speech M.Karni. Carney said that additional stimulus measures will be used if necessary.



Expectations for today:


In Asia, the euro / dollar was trading in the positive zone of + 0.1% or 12 points in relation to the closing price on Wednesday. Pressure on the dollar is saved due to lower probability of Fed rate increase in September. In September, the rate increase is estimated at 15%.


On Thursday, the ECB will hold a meeting and press conference M.Dragi. The forecast made at 15:30 MSK. It is not known what to say Draghi after the meeting. It was he who asks vector euro movement to the close of trading in Europe.


News of the day (GMT + 3): The  

  • 14:45 Eurozone - ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • At 15:30 Canada - Building Permits for July
  • At 15:30 Canada - The price index for housing in the primary market in July           
  • At 15:30 Canada - Capacity utilization Q2. 2016
  • At 15:30 Eurozone - Press Conference of the President and Vice-President of the ECB
  • At 15:30 US - The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the 29.08-04.09
  • At 18:00 US - Changing the oil reserves of 29.08-04.09         
  • 19:20 Canada - Bank of Canada Speech zam.upravlyayuschego Timothy Lane
  • At 22:00 US - Changing the volume of consumer crediting in July


Technical analysis:


Intraday outlook: at least - n / a, maximum - n / a, closing - n / a.


Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView


Expectations for lateral movement and daylight pinbaru justified. EUR / USD moved up to 1.1271 and back to 1.1239. As a result of the closure of the day it was formed pinbar.


According pinbaru need to sell the euro at the level of the breakdown of 1.1229. All anything, but today scheduled a press conference Mario Draghi. And as we know, the head of the ECB will cancel all the strong signals of technical analysis. In this regard, I have a bet to 15:30 (gmt + 3).


His speech, it can cause price fluctuations in the euro / dollar pair in 100 or more points, so the trade during his speech would not recommend. First let emotional traders will fulfill his performance, then it will be possible to look at the entrance to the market.



Source Alpari


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