Results of the last trading day:
On Tuesday, the euro against the US currency closed in a good plus. The dollar came under pressure after the publication of statistical data in the US. In August, the index of business activity in the US service sector fell to 51.4 from 55.5 points in July (forecast was 55.0).
These reduced the probability of a Fed rate in September. According to CME Group's, after leaving the service ISM probability of a rate hike in September, down from 21% to 18% in December, on the contrary increased from 41.1% to 42.9%.
On the news the euro / dollar rate increased by one figure to 1.1256. Closer to the American session closing exchange rate rose to 1.1263.
Expectations for today:
Buyers open the way to 1.13. On Wednesday, I expect the strengthening of the euro to 1.1280. Higher growth is not considered as the 112-th degree is a strong resistance. I think that before the assault of 1.13 euro will adjust. In the form of a model will be a correction, I'm not prepared to answer, you need to look at what level will rebound, and that will form the bulls.
News of the day (GMT + 3): The
- At 11:30 Great Britain - the volume of production in manufacturing and industrial production for July
- At 12:15 pm United Kingdom - Speech by the Bank of England member of the Monetary Policy Committee, John Cunliffe
- 16:15 United Kingdom - Hearing in Parliament on the inflation report
- At 17:00 Canada - Statement by the Bank of Canada's interest rate, index of business activity from the Ivey August, UK - Assessment of changes in GDP from NIESR June-August, the United States - the number of vacancies (excluding agriculture) in July.
- At 21:00 US - exit "beige book" The Fed
Technical analysis :
Intraday Forecast: minimum - 1.1233, maximum - 1.1279, closing - 1.1256.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView
Expectations for the euro to strengthen justified. Only at the expense of the American Statistical pair growth was higher than the estimated level of 1.12 to 63 points.
After rapid growth in the euro buyers often try to update the maximum. That's what I want to see today. After the formation of a bearish divergence is possible to sell the euro. The zone is a reversal 1,1271-1,1298. Because it can take a chance to open a short position with a view on the line lb.
Support runs through 1.1237. If it does not stand in Europe, we go first to the 45 th degrees at 1.1210.