First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The first half of the week the euro has grown due to expectations that the yield of the UK from the EU will be postponed indefinitely. The pair rose above the center line of the mid-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. However, the last day of winter - February 28, made adjustments, inspired the dollar admirers. Estimate of US GDP for 2018. It was significantly higher than forecast. In favor of the dollar played a very strong business activity index Chicago. As a result, the pair went down was, but bears the joy was short-lived. The momentum was so weak that she could not even get close to the 1.1300 support. And after the publication on Friday 1 March ISM business activity index, which was also worse than the previous value, and worse than the forecast, the pair has gone up again. This was followed by yet another failed attempt to break through the defense of the bulls,
- GBP / USD. Thus, the British Parliament has agreed to the proposal of the Prime Minister Theresa May a vote on Brexit impossible without a deal with the EU and the need for the postponement of the country's exit from the European Union. Please note: this is not the transfer of the timing of release, only the consent of the Parliament to bring the matter to a vote. But it was enough to pound rose by 300 points and reached a height in the middle of the week 1.3350. And then it all, as in the case of the euro, - slight recovery of the dollar, then the rosy statistics from the US on Friday, and as a result the final chord pair at 1.3200;
- USD / JPY. On the Japanese currency quotes last week influenced by two factors unpleasant for her. Firstly, it is the continued growth of the risk appetite of investors and capital outflows in emerging economies. The second blow was growing, thanks to made public on Thursday, the positive statistics, the yield on US Treasury bonds.
Recall that the experts last week, 70% voted in favor of a further fall in the yen and the growth of the pair to a level 111.50-112.50. Due to these factors, this forecast proved to be accurate, and the pair recorded a weekly high at a height of 112.07, and then completed the five-day period at the level of 111.90;
- cryptocurrency. As often happens in this market, the biggest jumps in quotations fall on weekends, then weekdays market falls into hibernation. It happened at this time. On Saturday, February 23 bitcoin soared to a height of $ 4,280, and then, no less quickly collapsed to the level of $ 3,810, and then moved to the lateral movement, the closer, a little moving away from a key horizon $ 4,000. Showed similar dynamics, and other high-end coin - Ethereum, laytkoyn Ripley and others. In this case, a pair of LTC / USD and XRP / USD finished sevenday virtually the same place where it started and, once again confirmed the view that the present serious drivers who can create really powerful trend for the whole market, at the moment no.
Total market capitalization for the week fell by 7.8% - from $ 141 billion to $ 130 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Statistics show that in 2018 the US economy grew by 2.9%. President Trump promises that in 2019 it will continue to rise, calling the figure of 3.0%. Logic dictates that in such a situation it is necessary to actively buy dollars. However, unlike Trump, Fed predicts recession and GDP drop to 2.3%. If we add to this the ECB assurances of sustainable growth of the economy of the Eurozone by 0.5% in each quarter of 2019., The situation is not as straightforward.
The same ambiguous look and analysts' opinions are divided exactly in half - 50% increase in couples, 50% - of its fall. At the same time, according to those, and other, the pair is likely to hold out in the corridor 1.1300-1.1500 , which moves to the end of October 2018. Of course, there may be emissions to extremes, however, and in this case, the oscillation range will slightly wider - 1.1215-1.1570.
If we move from weekly to the medium-term forecast, there is already an advantage supporters of the euro (65%), which predict growth of the pair to 1.1700-1.1800 area.
Now a few words about technical analysis. Over 80% of the indicators are colored green, but already 15% D1 oscillators provide signals about overbought. As for the graphical analysis, the daily time frame, he draws an undulating movement of the pair in the channel 1.1215-1.1455.
The most important events of the coming week should pay attention to the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 07 at the end of which, perhaps, it will be clear who will be the next chairman of the bank. Also, traditionally, market volatility can add data on the GDP of the Eurozone on Thursday, and on the labor market statistics in the United States on Friday, March 08;
- GBP / USD. Of course, the reigning optimism about a pound last week - a temporary phenomenon. Possible delay in Brexit - no more than a postponement, not a solution to the problem. And whether it will do, it will become clear only in the middle of the month. March 12 will be held a second vote on the deal, and in case of another failure of Mei March 13 issue of will be raised that the UK could not leave the EU without agreement. If Parliament approves such a decision, the next day lawmakers can vote for postponement of negotiations, which means the transfer Brexit at a later date.
How will he Brexit and its postponement to the British economy of the Kingdom of now no one knows. But while a slight advantage for the bears - 60% of analysts predicts pair drop to the level of 1.3115, the next support 1.2965 and 1.2830. The remaining 40% of the experts believe that the pound, rebounding from the 1.3200 support, will still be able to grow and achieve levels of 1.3315, 1.3470, and in the medium term - 1.3615;
- USD / JPY. Rising risk appetite and oil prices provide the majority (65%) of experts reason to expect a further fall of the yen and the growth of the pair to the 112.25-113.25 zone. The ultimate goal - 114.20. With this development and agree graphical analysis on D1. However, about 20% oscillators H4 and signals D1 serves perekuplennosti pair that is a precursor sufficiently strong downward correction. Therefore, the transition to the monthly forecast for 70% of analysts vote for a trend reversal and decline to support 110.25 a pair. The next support zone at 109.15;
- cryptocurrency. Overall, despite some subsidence crypto-market news background in this area it looks quite positive. After JPMorgan was the first US banks tested own digital coin - JPM Coin, everyone is waiting for the development of similar projects on Facebook and Telegram. And the introduction of cryptocurrency in WhatsApp should cover 35% of the population. In such a situation crypto enthusiasts predict the next rise of digital currencies. For example, according to the vice-president of IBM's blokcheynu Jesse Landa, the reference price cryptocurrency until the end of 2019 will exceed $ 5,000, and then it starts to sharply rise and eventually reach $ 1 million.
It is understood that the prediction about a million dollars per 1 BTC is not even a forecast but a dream. But also for the near future the majority of experts (65%) are positive, considering that bitcoin is required to consolidate above the level of $ 4,000, rising to $ 4,300-4,600 zone. However, the number of pessimists is still quite large - 35%. According to them, we will soon see the PTS quotes around $ 3,200-3,500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.