EURUSD Forecast 01/23/2019
The euro may rise today to demonstrate, but not because of its strength, but on the background of dollar weakness. Published release of US home sales for December came out not just worse than the consensus forecast, but also showed a strong decline in sales for the first time in eight years. real estate sales fall last seven consecutive months. I think that the main reason - is to increase the Fed's interest rate, since a large part of the property is acquired in the mortgage. Mortgage rates have been known to follow the Federal Reserve rate. The housing market is an important indicator for the US economy. Not by chance the last global economic crisis of 2008 was due to the real estate market. What we are being told the news, and how this can earn? Poor housing data will not allow the Fed to actively raise interest rates this year, which is negative for the dollar. Now CME futures market indicates one rate hike in December.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1350 / 1.1330, and take profit 1.1410.
GBPUSD Forecast 23/01/2019
Positive release on the labor market in the UK in November was little changed sentiment in the bond market - now investors have become more supportive of the UK assets. Pound today will be supported by the dynamics of the debt market, as the yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose strongly in relation to their counterparts in the US and Germany. Wage growth now more than before the 2008 crisis, and the unemployment rate dropped to a mark of 4%. Since this month began an upward trend in the oil market, soon we are waiting for increase in gasoline prices, which together with strong labor market data indicates a rise in inflation. Inflation is usually late for a couple of months and this means that the growth of the consumer price index, we will see in the spring. As soon as the British Parliament agree on a deal to Brexit,
GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2940 / 1.2920, and take profit 1.3001
Season in the US runs reports on a positive note. On the eve of its financial results for the fourth quarter, we are pleased Johnson & Johnson, and Halliburton, which reported about the good demand for drugs and services of drilling, respectively. Chinese officials are preparing for trade negotiations with the US, which will go to Washington next week. Celestial is ready to increase the volume of US wheat purchases, if the parties can reach a compromise on January 30-31. I think that the parties agree as to US farmers Celestial Empire is one of the main markets and farmers actively voted for D. Trump elections in November 2016. Trump obviously does not want to lose the electorate before the elections in 2020. Such dynamics indicates an increase in the S & P500 mark 2680 n.,
USDJPY recommendation: Buy 109.60 / 109.40 and take profit 110.05