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Main » 2019 » August » 20 » Forex forecast and recommendations today 20.08.2019: EUR / USD - The rumors about reducing ECB rate hike, GBP / USD
Forex forecast and recommendations today 20.08.2019: EUR / USD - The rumors about reducing ECB rate hike, GBP / USD


The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 08/20/2019

Inflation in the euro area in July fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The consumer price index rose by only 1.1%, which is almost two times less willows target with the ECB. The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held in three weeks, and investors expect decisive action from Mario Draghi and his colleagues. Last week, the governor of the Bank of Finland O. Rehn said about the need to lower interest rates and launching a program of QE (buying bonds at the expense of the ECB's money). Yesterday's release of the negative even more intensified these expectations in investors' ranks. Let me remind you that in the period from 2015 to 2018 GG The ECB has already held QE program, which caused a decline of the euro and a rise in European stock markets (# DAX30 and # CAC40). Whether the situation is repeated in this time? I think yes, because history always repeats itself in the financial markets. ECB sent about 2.5 bln. euros in the period from 2015 to 2018 GG stimulate the economy. Then this step has helped the economy. new measures are now necessary.


EURUSD recommendation: Sell 1.1114 / 1.1135, and take profit 1.1077







Pound Dollar GBPUSD forex forecast for today 20/08/2019

The British pound, which last week was one of the leaders of growth at the beginning of a new five-day decided to take a break and relax. Today, in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics course of trading will be determined by two factors. The first factor - the dynamics of the bond market, where the British currency fonmiruetsya neutral background. UK yield spread of government bonds / US virtually unchanged. The second factor - the dynamics of the oil market, as GBPUSD correlates with black gold. Investors are increasing their purchases of oil, as expectations of lower interest rates by the leading central banks in September.

GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2112 / 1.2095, and take profit 1.2171




Dollar yen USDJPY Forex forecast for today 20/08/2019

The world's leading stock markets show growth, which will positively affect the share prices of the currency pair, as USDJPY has a strong correlation with the equity markets. The focus of investors are now two factors. First, the Ministry of Commerce on 90 days delayed sanctions against the Chinese company Huawei. The United States has softened its stance on China, which positively perceived by investors in the stock market. Secondly, the Central Bank of China announced the reform of the key interest rate. The Central Bank intends to change the method, which is used to adjust interest rates in the economy. Investors expect rate cuts by the Chinese regulator in the autumn, which will positively impact on economic growth. This factor also contributes to the inflow of capital in the stock markets.

USDJPU recommendation: Buy 106.44 / 106.22 and take profit 106.92



FreshForex analyst



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