16:30 MSK. US: Retail Sales.
The euro dollar forex trading forecast for EURUSD pair today 14/12/2018
The ECB as expected kept interest rates at zero and announced the reinvestment of interest income in 2019 derived from the QE program. This scenario is in line with expectations of investors, and we have not seen great changes in the short-term trend. The trend is still upward, and the EURUSD is aimed at testing the level of 1.1500. Today should pay attention to two factors.
Firstly, oil quotes are growing and it will provide support to the euro, because of the direct correlation EUR / USD and Brent. Oil rises in price after the publication of the International Energy Agency report, which has reported that the market expects the balance at the end of the first quarter of 2019. Of course, this is just an excuse, because oil and so had to grow due to growth in the rest of risky assets (equities and industrial metals). But the IEA authoritative organization, its opinion is heeded, and the reason for the growth of the black gold was eventually found. By Brent grade today, I expect growth in the region of 63.75.
Second, the United States have reported an increase in the state budget deficit worse than the median market forecast, which will put pressure on the dollar. Deficit increases against the backdrop of the tax reform J. Trump and the results of 10 months of the year reached 860 billion. $, Which is 26.2% higher than a year earlier. It is worth noting that in November, the deficit increased by 47% in annual terms. For the US, this is bad as a short-term (dollar fall within one or two days) and long-term, since such a pace and a half years the huge deficit will cause a strong imbalance in the economy, which will lead both to a crisis. But now, in the administration of the White House, no one thinks about the crisis and the team D. Trump Lives for a Day.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1.1350 / 1.1340, and take profit 1.1410.
Pound dollar forex forecast pair GBPUSD today 14/12/2018
Uncertainty around Brexit preserved and it is a risk for the British currency. If not for this factor, one could safely say today about the positions Buy, against the background of negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the growth of the oil market, which the pair GBP / USD has a strong correlation. But now, any negative news on Brexit voting project can break all the ideas for the purchase of pounds in an instant. In this regard, today it is better to refrain from active trading in this currency pair and turn their attention to other tools, such as the euro, oil and the US stock market and so on.
GBPUSD recommendation: Flat-1.2575. 1.2665.
The dollar yen pair USDJPY Forex forecast for today 12/14/2018
Open Buy position in USDJPY, based on the growth of quotations to the high of November 114.20. the positive trend in the global stock markets was the main driver of growth.
First, China is ready to move closer to the United States and started buying soybeans - it is the same product, because of which it was a lot of heated debate.
Secondly, the US industrial corporation Caterpillar has reported an increase in global sales of equipment for power generation in the period from September to November at 21%. construction machinery sales increased by 9%. This factor indicates a high economic growth in the world economy, it would be welcomed by investors in equity markets. USDJPY since the pair has a strong correlation with the stock markets, this is also a positive signal for her!
USDJPY recommendation: Buy 113.39 / 113.11 and take profit 114.20.