15:30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for August.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar forex forecast for EURUSD today 09/13/2019
At present, it formed a mixed background for the single European currency. On the one hand, it is possible to expect growth of quotations of the euro, as the ECB did not go to drastic measures. Yes, the central bank lowered the deposit rate at 0.1%, but QE is only from November 1 and by only 20 billion euros. Initially, investors were counting on QE in the amount of 30 billion euros and from 1 October. Thus, Mario Draghi, who was the penultimate meeting as head of the Central Bank did not take decisive action. Why? Perhaps he left "room for maneuver" of the future head of the ECB C. Lagarde, who will replace Draghi in November. The ECB lowered its forecasts for inflation and GDP in the 2019-2020 GG and said that QE will last as long as it takes. This statement immediately had to do not like D. Trump, who in his every social. network wrote the following: "The European Central Bank acted quickly and lowered interest rates by 10 bps. n. They are trying, and they do, to devalue the euro against the strong US dollar, which has US exports. The Fed continues to sit. They are paid for what they borrow money, and we pay the interest! "Trump as usual PR.
On the other hand, the launch of QE from the ECB forms the bullish rally in the stock markets, which in turn lead to gold sales. This is a negative signal for the euro, which has a strong correlation with the precious metal. I expect the reduction of quotations of gold in the area in 1485 in the short term.
EURUSD recommendation: flat 1.1010 -1.1090
Pound to dollar forex forecast GBPUSD today 09/13/2019
GBPUSD today forex traders are two reasons to buy the currency of Britain. First, on the debt market is growing yield spread of government UK / US bonds. Investors are optimistic about the news from the United Kingdom, as Boris Johnson could not lobby for new parliamentary elections. The yield on 3-month Treasury bills UK is currently above the key Bank of England's rates - this factor indicates that the British central bank in the coming months will not cut interest rates, unlike their counterparts in the euro area and the United States. For the pound is good news!
Vvtoraya, the United States and China announced a truce in the trading vone while temporarily, but it is still positive for risky assets (stocks and commodities). As the British pound has traditionally correlated with risk assets, this is also a positive signal for her.
GBPUSD recommendation: Buy 1.2322 / 1.2310, and take profit 1.2385
Dollar yen forex forecast USDJPY today 13/09/2019
Bullish rally in the world's leading stock exchanges have a positive impact on the value of a given currency pair. Now for the stock markets generated positive background, even I would say very positive background. First, the G-20 central banks of countries continue to soften its monetary policy. On the eve of two central bank of G-20 countries have reduced interest rates: ECB's 0.1% interest on deposits, and the Central Bank of Turkey 3.25%. The lower the rate of the Central Bank, the higher the share price - is the basic rule of investing. Second, the United States and China are ready for dialogue and go to each other to make concessions, which was not observed earlier. This is logical, given that until new presidential elections in the United States is less than 14 months. A year before the elections are traditionally active political work begins and D. Trump less than two months to carry out good negotiations with China.
USDJPY recommendation: Buy 108.05 / 107.80 and take profit 108.70