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Main » 2019 » September » 4 » Forex forecast and recommendations today 04.09.2019: EUR / USD - Trump criticizes EU, GBP / USD - high volatility, USD / JPY
Forex forecast and recommendations today 04.09.2019: EUR / USD - Trump criticizes EU, GBP / USD - high volatility, USD / JPY


Events today:

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the non-production sphere in August.

The euro to dollar exchange rate EURUSD forecast for today 09/04/2019

Euro for three consecutive days trading below the psychological level of 1.1000, and in this area it is advisable to open a Sell position. Before the next meeting of the ECB remains little more than a week, where the regulator is the first time in history to introduce negative interest rates. Such a scenario is now a base in investment circles. On the eve of a series of statements made by the representatives of the ECB, which essentially boils down to the fact that on 12 September the central bank will lower interest rates and promise to keep them at a low level for a long time, at least within the next twelve months. You can not ignore the statements of J. Trump that the EU "is also behaving dishonestly in terms of trade" in relation to the United States. The American president may at any time announce the introduction of duties on European products, that will be perceived negatively by investors. It is worth noting that the euro is now stronger sales should not be expected, since the fall in the debt market yields of US government bonds. This factor reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets.

EURUSD recommendation: Sell 1.0992 / 1.1015, and take profit 1.0962







dollar pound exchange rate GBPUSD outlook today 04/09/2019

Political turbulence in the United Kingdom contributes to the high volatility of the British currency. Any declaration of British politicians may now, as to cause growth of the pound to 100 points per hour of trading, the pound and send in a knockout. This week the market is actively rumors that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at the meeting on 19 September, to provide the best financial terms of the economy due to the political crisis. However, the yield of three-month bills of the United Kingdom Ministry of Finance is at the same level of 0.75% and this factor indicates the absence of the possibility of lower interest rates. The British pound found support at the psychological level of 1.2000 and now can not see the reasons for the strong sales of the British currency.

GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1.2055 -1.2145




the dollar against the yen exchange rate USDJPY outlook today 04/09/2019

The bidding is still dependent on the dynamics of stock markets which are now traded sideways. Investors are waiting for the two news. Firstly, Friday's release of the US labor market for August, which will make it clear how Federezv may cut rates in the remaining months before the New Year. Initially, the market expects two drops (18 September and 30 October). But in the case of weak data FOMC may cut rates three times and this is negative for the dollar. Second, market participants are waiting for new details of US trade negotiations, and China, but nothing concrete yet. D. Trump on Tuesday tweeted that negotiations with China are well and need to Beijing as soon as possible to conclude a trade agreement. From these words, investors "neither hot nor cold." Overall, I expect growth of stock markets this week. Leading signal is now fed to the emerging markets - currencies and bonds of countries such as Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, China, India showing growth that traditionally signals the growth of stock markets in North America and Europe. Against this background, it is advisable to open a Buy position # SP500 for the purpose in 2950.

USDJPY recommendation: Buy 105.70 / 105.50 and take profit 106.10



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