Events for today:
17:00 MSK. USA: Sales in the secondary housing market in September (the previous value of 0.0% -0.8% forecast).
Course efro dollar forecast EUR / USD pair today 19/10/2018
Today, forex trading, players on the euro, after three days of decline, it is necessary to wait for a reversal in the EURUSD. The rise of Asian stock markets, following the publication of statistics from China. Celestial has reported a reduction of GDP by 0.1%, while an increase was recorded in capital investment and retail sales. What does this mean and why it is positive for the euro? Firstly, investors were waiting for a moderate reduction of GDP and "laid" the expectations in quotes. Therefore, the negative is already priced in - now it is a neutral factor. Secondly, the growth of capital investments and retail trade indicates the future GDP growth - investors not count on it, and for them it is now a pleasant surprise. Euro is highly dependent on China's economic growth and when Beijing demonstrates the growth, the euro is positive.
Speaking on the eve of a member of the ECB Governing Council and head of the Bank of Finland O. Rehn said the need to raise rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. One of the heads of the Fed D. Bullard said yesterday that require higher productivity growth, to enhance the forecast of economic growth potential. In plain language, this means that the Fed will be slow to raise interest rates, because they do not see the reasons for the rapid increase. For the dollar it is at least a moderate, but still a negative signal.
EURUSD recommendation: Buy 1,1450 / 1,1430 and take profit 1,1519.
Pound Dollar forecast pair GBP / USD today 19/10/2018
Uncertainty surrounding the negotiations ES and the United Kingdom on Brexit pushing the pound down quotes. Brussels is set firmly against London, while T. Mae loses trust in the British Parliament and now the rating is at its lowest level. Olli Rehn, Member of the ECB's Governing Council, on Thursday said growth risks that the EU and the UK did not manage to agree on Brekzitu. Now the situation on the British currency is uncertain and in this regard, today the players in the GBPUSD, better to refrain from active trading.
GBPUSD recommendation: flat 1,3000-1,3100.
Dollar yen forecast pair USD / JPY today 19/10/2018
Inflation data in Japan for September disappointed investors - the final figure fell short of the consensus forecast, it is a negative factor for the currency of the country of the rising sun. Today there is demand for risky assets, it would support a pair of USD / JPY, as it is strongly correlated with the industrial metals and stock markets. Yesterday Advisor J. Trump L. Kudlou said that on trade issues, China is still "intractable". Celestial today sent a WTO complaint against the United States. Progress in negotiations, we do not see, but the escalation of the conflict either. In such cases, investors tend to say that the lack of bad news in itself is positive.
USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 112,40 / 112,20 and take profit 112,90.
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