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Main » 2018 » June » 13 » Forex forecast and recommendations for today 13.06.2018: EUR / USD - Sell, GBP / USD - the reasons for buying, USD / JPY - The growth figure
Forex forecast and recommendations for today 13.06.2018: EUR / USD - Sell, GBP / USD - the reasons for buying, USD / JPY - The growth figure


The main event today:

11:30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index for May (the previous value of -2.4% y / y, forecast 2.4% y / y).

17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in May (the previous value of 2.07M; -2.74M forecast).

21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate in May (the previous value of -1.75%, the forecast of 2%).

Forex euro dollar forecast EUR / USD pair today 13/06/2018

Forex players in the euro today in the first half of trading worth waiting for reducing the EUR / USD rate on the negative bond market, where the yield is reduced differential German and US 10-year bonds. Inflation data in the United States in May, which came out the day before, presented an unexpected surprise, the consumer price index rose to the level of 2.8% is the highest since March 2012. Moreover, inflation exceeded CAGR average wage 0.1%. Now, after 2 months may reduce inflation, as falling real incomes. It was a strong rise in inflation caused a drop in the differential in bond yields.

In the second half of the session, participants of the market is likely waiting for a rate increase to 0.25% FSR because the futures market in Chicago indicates a 98% probability of such an outcome. This market is never wrong before, which means that the rate increase will take place today. How will this affect the euro quotes? At first, traders should wait for price decline, and then rise in the euro at the close of the "shorts".

EUR / USD recommendation: Sell 1,1750 / 1,1775 and take profit 1,1710.







Forex Pound Dollar exchange rate forecast pair GBP / USD today 06/13/2018

The main event today for the players on the British, this is a report on inflation in the UK in May. There are two reasons to wait for the release of positive data. First, the last three months average earnings growth rate above inflation, which traditionally contributes to the growth of consumer price index in the medium term. Second, the cost of gasoline at the Albion peaked over the past three months, which will also contribute to the growth of inflation. Against this background, the growth rate is likely Consumer Price Index to a mark of 2.55, which will support the British at auction in Europe. Before vyhom report may reduce the sterling to 1.3342 / 1.3315 amid falling of oil prices, due to Brent and GBP / USD strong correlation.

GBP / USD recommendation: Buy 1,3342 / 1,3315 and take profit 1,3395.




Forex dollar yen forecast pair USD / JPY today 13.06.218

Buy a pair, based on the growth of quotations in the region of 111 pieces. Investors are increasing their "Long" after the release of US inflation data for May, where the index came out much better than the consensus forecast. Such dynamics is caused by growth of oil prices, as the black gold has a strong impact on inflation in the economy. May inflation in the United States accounted for only an April price increase, but because of oil in May, has updated a maximum of three years - this means that the rate of consumer price index for the following month will also be high. Recall that in Japan, inflation is still very low and the central bank is not yet possible to disperse the consumer price index, despite an ambitious program of QE.


USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 110,45 / 110,20 and take profit 111,00.




Aleksandr Goryachev

Company analyst FreshForex



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