First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Who would neither belonged to Trump, but the US economic policy demonstrates the visual success. Forecast for US GDP in 2018. It grows with the stock indexes, and the unemployment rate by the middle of next year is expected to decline to the lowest level in the last 50 years. As a result, the United States started trade wars, the economy of the Eurozone and China have already begun to experience serious problems. Following the success, Trump likely to increase import duties and further, allowing US producers are not afraid of a stronger dollar.
At the same time 88% of respondents polled by Wall Street Journal, expected that the Fed will raise interest rates four times this year. And it is also driving interest in the US currency.
And then there's the Turkish lira has dealt a blow to the euro. Against the background of deterioration in US-Turkish relations over the past few days she was "shrunk" in relation to the dollar by about 25%.
It is no secret that a number of major European banks lend to Turkish economy and the sharp depreciation of its currency may well provide them with serious difficulties. About it and tell the world an article in the Financial Times, heating panic. As a result, starting on Thursday August 09, the EUR / USD sharply downward.
Recall that 70% of the experts voted for the pair decrease to medium-term support 1.1505, where the pair reached on Friday. But to stop there is not going to, and fell another 120 points, groped local bottom at 1.1385. At the end of the week-long session, after a slight rebound, the pair is trading in the 1.1410 area;
- GBP / USD. British Pound future looks even more sad than a week ago. The statement of the British Minister for Trade Lee Fox on the 60% probability of a hard option Brexit sounded in unison with the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and strengthened market pessimism.
Last week, the majority of analysts (70%) forecast a decline in GBP / USD pair to lows of summer 2017, and that happened. Week low was recorded at the level of 1.2720, and the end of five days the pair met at the level of 1.2765;
- USD / JPY. The expansion of trade war between the US and China, together with the Turkish crisis played into the hands of the Japanese yen as a safe-haven. As a result, one week, she played in the dollar around 35 points, ending the week at 110.90;
- cryptocurrency. This market was still under the control of bears. Moreover, their pressure has risen dramatically. market capitalization has fallen by about 10% and now stands at about $ 230 billion.
Giving a forecast for the last week, we pointed out that the strongest support for bitcoin is in the area of $ 6,000-6,100 - the very level where mining has become almost unprofitable. This prediction was 100% correct - on Thursday the pair BTC / USD 8 August hit a low of $ 6,125, and then strayed and went up to 6,500 zone.
Ethereum (ETH) lost for the week around 14.5%, laytkoyn (LTH) - 22%, Ripple (XRP) - more than a quarter of its value.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- main factors determining the movement of dollar pairs for the near future have been described above. As for the pair EUR / USD, some 60% of analysts believe that the dollar continues to strengthen and the pair go down. With this development agree graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as the majority of indicators. As the target is called the zone 1.1120-1.1300. On the other hand, 40% of experts voted that as soon as the pair manages to hold on to tier 1.1370-1.1515, which is confirmed by its oversold signals that serve 15% of the oscillators;
- GBP / USD. 1.2770 zone is sufficiently strong level of support / resistance that pair repeatedly tested in the 2012th, and 2017th years.
55% of the experts believe that the negative momentum of the pair will continue for some time, and it will fall to 1.2675-1.2720 support. As for the remaining 45% of analysts, then, according to them, a couple now expects a corrective rebound to the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel at 1.2940 zone. Only reaching this height, it will turn around and continue its movement in the south. With such a scenario agree and graphical analysis, and 20% oscillator signal the pereprodannosti this pair;
- USD / JPY. If you look at the graphs in the time frames D1 and W1, then seen the incipient breakdown of the medium-term rising channel's lower border, which was launched in late March this year. Consider the breakdown a fait accompli is still too early, however, almost 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on the H4, believe that the strengthening of the yen as a safe-haven currency, will be continued, and the pair will fall at least until the horizon 110.30. The next support at 100 points lower.
On the other hand, can be considered a zone 111.60-110.80 Pivot Point last 12 months, which suggests the possibility of a rebound pair up - to 112.00-112.25 resistance, than agree with 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on the D1;
- cryptocurrency. The negative sentiment in the market is constantly fueled by negative publicity in the media. For example, in his article in the New York Times, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman predicted around kriptovalyutnomu market a complete collapse. Reason - the high cost of transactions with virtual money, which makes it unprofitable to use them in commercial transactions. According to Bloomberg, the volume of commercial transactions with Bitcoin worldwide in May fell to a paltry sum of $ 60 million.
Another publication, in the Wall Street Journal, confirms the version that volatility cryptocurrency is devoid of any economic justification. For example, to affect their course of action of organized groups of "gray traders", which are created in social networks, such as the Telegram. According to the WSJ, in six months it recorded 175 cases of market manipulation such as a sharp jump up to be a sharp collapse cryptocurrency. Such manipulation is called «Pump and Dump».
As for the immediate future couples BTC / USD, then it is possible that it is for some time may be delayed in the area of $ 5,760-6,800. Of course, if the week did not bring any important news - either real or inflated by the scheme «Pump and Dump». It is important to note that the level of 5,760 is the support that the pair failed to overcome since the beginning of its fall of 17 December 2017.
Roman Butko, NordFX