First, a few words about the behavior of the major currency pairs and kriptovalyutnyh last week:
- EUR / USD. The behavior of this pair at the beginning of the week determined players fear of possible political changes in Italy. As a result, the pair fell to the values of a year ago and came close to the mark of 1.1500. However, then the situation in the eurozone went into a quiet channel, Italian populists agreed on the composition of the Government, and the dollar gradually began to lose their positions. Against this backdrop, the euro was able to play at the "American" about 215 points, and even the positive data on the US labor market on Friday (NFP rose from 159K to 223) could not fundamentally change the situation. As a result, the pair completed a five-day week is almost the same place where it started - in the zone of 1.1660;
- similar to the previous pair and demonstrated the dynamics of the pair GBP / USD. At first, she fell to the level of November 2017, but support in the area of 1.3200 proved irresistible for her, and the pair went up to a height of 1.3345. This was followed by a counter-offensive bears, but after a brief struggle, the victory was for the Bulls. As a result, the pair managed to gain a foothold above the level of a sufficiently strong the past two weeks - 1.3300, and finished the week at a height of 1.3345;
- USD / JPY. Earlier this week, the yen continued to grow, but then began to lose ground. And this despite the fact that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May increased slightly. It is possible that the yen fall due to the actions of the Central Bank of Japan, which for the first time since August 2017. reduced purchases of government bonds. The result of the match week the bulls and bears - a draw, the end of the trading session the pair met at the level of 109.52;
- cryptocurrency. If we compare the graphics and main bitcoin altkoynov, they repeat quite accurately the movement of major currency pairs - the fall in the first half of the week and return to their initial position - in the second. Capitalization all kriptorynka also almost unchanged at $ 330 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. And oscillators and trend indicators on H4 took a neutral position, and on D1 is still recommended to sell the pair. As for the analysts, but now their focus is on the "trade war" US and news about the introduction in relation to the EU, Mexico and Canada customs duties on imports of aluminum. In this regard, most of them (55%) is inclined to the fact that steam can rise into the zone of 1.1800-1.1830. At the same graphical analysis H4 said that then is not excluded it hang down to support near 1.1600.
In the longer term the number of bulls supporters among experts increases to nearly 70%, and the height specified as targets of 1.2000 and even 1.2200. As for the bears, then, in their view, the pair could not overcome the resistance of 1.1800 and a seven-week downward trend will continue;
- GBP / USD. Indications of this pair of indicators are very similar to the readings on the EUR / USD. Not much different and the opinions of experts, 60% of them expect the pound will rise to the level of 1.3420, and in case of breakdown to reach 1.3500 area. Next resistance at 100 points above.
However, the UK problems associated with the release of the EU have not gone away. And, in case of negative economic news release, the pound will continue to fall, reaching a local bottom in the area of 1.3085. With such a scenario is consistent and graphical analysis on the D1, pointing to yet another support at 1.2900;
- USD / JPY. The above mentioned reduction of the Central Bank of Japan buying bonds. The market still only evaluate the situation, but the big players may well decide to move further down the yen. Especially because some of the high-ranking Japanese officials have expressed explicit concern about a possible escalation of the trade war on the Land of the rising sun.
In the meantime, as the opinion of analysts, and the indicators are divided into three almost equal parts - one-third of the fall in the pair, one-third of its growth, and another third of the lateral trend. Support at 108.95, 108.65 and 107.50. Resistance - 110.00, 110.45 and 111.10;
- cryptocurrency. Market analysis shows that landslides are subject to not only the digital currency, but also participants in this market. For example, kriptobirzha OKcoin, the former two years ago in the first place, has now appeared on the 188th. In general, during this time 8 of 10 kriptorynka leaders lost their positions.
It had a negative effect on the dynamics of the present, and on projections run on cryptocurrency futures, as well as institutional investors pessimism. As a result, most of all, we should not expect the same rise in market value of virtual money, which we observed in June last year.
Currently, almost all majeure crypto-pair repeated movements of their leader - BTC / USD, which is constantly decreasing volatility continues to consolidate in the area of the horizon 7.150.
If we follow the theory of graphical analysis, now we are witnessing the formation of shapes called pennant. However, in what direction it will follow the breakdown depends explicitly on the Forex theorists, and the decisions and actions, first of all, the major regulators.
In the case of upward rebound can be expected to move to the height of 11,700 bitcoins. The first step towards this will be the return of BTC / USD pair in the zone above 9,000. In the case of negative developments, soon we will see in bitcoin zone 5,000-6,000. At the upcoming week is likely to bitcoin will test support zone 7,025-7,200.
As for altkoynov, then, as has been said, with high probability and Ethereum (ETH / USD), and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), and Ripple (XRP / USD) will soon be easy to follow Bitcoin without taking any independent action.
Roman Butko, NordFX