First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As expected, the US-China talks have not brought clarity - the only information passed from the Ministry of Commerce of China, which reported that negotiations were frank and useful. This wording can be regarded as a lack of concrete results. Speech by Fed chairman Jerome Powell also was not a revolutionary, and dropped the dollar by only 30 points.
In general, this week the euro rose nearly 200 points, which, first of all, have contributed to a serious problem around the US president and his entourage, which can develop into prison terms for his assistants and prosecution of Trump. In favor of the euro played and the US decision to defer the question of raising duties on cars from the EU. As a result, the pair completed a week-long session, where 45% and is expected to experts - at the level of 1.1622, close to the 1.1630 resistance;
- GBP / USD. After the euro has grown in relation to dollar and the British pound, reaching the middle of the medium-term descending channel, initiated by the spring of this year. The pair reached the values of the beginning of August and the end of the five-day week has met at the level of 1.2845;
- USD / JPY. Recall that 75% of analysts expect decrease in pair 109.00 zone, while 25% voted for her return to the levels of 111.00-112.00. The couple, according to most expectations, really went down, and fell to the level of 109.75 on Tuesday, August 21st. However, this fall has stopped, and then the forecast was implemented, which was voted for the remaining 25% of the experts - the pair has risen to 111.00-112.00 zone, reaching a height of 111.50. The final chord sounded a little lower - at around 111.25;
- cryptocurrency. The main bad news of the week is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the USA has rejected five (a total of nine) applications for the launch of exchange-traded funds focused on Bitcoin (Bitcoin-ETF). The main reason for failure is the same - the problem of crypto-exchanges with the fraud and price manipulation. The good news is that the SEC may still yet to reconsider its decision. We were pleased with the bulls and news that Bank of Australia released the world's first bonds on the basis of blokcheyn actively bought by investors.
With regard to the capitalization kriptorynka, it grew slightly and accounted for slightly more than $ 210 billion.
In this situation, BTC / USD pair continued to move most of the time in a fairly narrow range of $ 6,230-6,650. As we expected, for the Bitcoin it was enough difficult to gain a foothold above the resistance of $ 6,830 - an attempt on August 22 ended in failure: reaching $ 6.885, the pair quickly turned around and returned within the week range. The next attempt took place on the night of Friday to Saturday, when, and so thin market becomes even thinner.
Breakdown of the $ 6,230 support hampered by the fact the majority of miners now working on the verge of recovery. And when falling below the zone of $ 6,000-6,100 Mining becomes almost unprofitable.
Laytkoyn (LTH), Ripple (XRP) and many other top coins after Bitcoins moved into the flat state. But Ethereum (ETH) again showed a negative trend, losing a week about 15%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The lack of results in the US-China talks, a possible impeachment of Trump. To this can be added another hit US president to the head of the Federal Reserve. Last fell out of favor to the Trump because too tight fiscal policy and increase interest rates. All of this continues to create uncertainty in the market, as a result of which the expert opinion was divided as follows:
- 45% of those supported by most oscillators and graphical analysis on H4, stand for a further weakening of the dollar and the transition zone pair 1.1630-1.1750. Next resistance - 1.1840;
- 30% of analysts still believe in "American" and waiting for the return of the pair to lows of mid-August. Near term support is 1.1430, the target - 1.1300. On their side act graphical analysis on D1 and 15% oscillators feed signals perekuplennosti US currency;
- and finally, the remaining 25% of the experts just could not decide in a given situation.
Если же переходить к более долгосрочным прогнозам, то тут предпочтение доллару отдают уже более 60% экспертов. Так, например, пока в ЕС решают, продолжать или нет стимулирующую кредитно-денежную политику, аналитики JP Morgan прогнозируют курс евро к доллару к концу года на уровне 1.1000-1.1200. Причины все те же – Brexit, Италия и Турция вместе с другими странами по периметру Евросоюза. Правда, потом в JP Morgan не исключают подъема европейской валюты до отметки 1.1900, но произойдет это не раньше весны 2019 года;
- GBP / USD. According indications graphical analysis, the future of this pair looks as follows: first rise to the upper limit downward channel (zone 1.3000-1.3080), then hang up and to fall first support 1.2660, and then even further - to the level of 1.2585. As for the indicators, here there is complete confusion - some indicate overbought, some oversold, some painted red, others green or neutral gray. A similar confusion among experts opinions. However, the transition to the Autumn Forecast, the picture becomes more clear - there is already more than 65% of analysts said the growth of the pair. The objectives, however, still quite vague - from 1.3100 to 1.3500;
- USD / JPY. The yen continues to push low inflation, talking about the weakness of demand and hinder the growth of GDP. The head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda had even promised to do hara-kiri if inflation does not reach the target of 2%. But the rise in prices is still very weak and did not even pick up to 1%. However, let us hope that Mr. Kuroda will not rush the implementation of their deadly promise.
In the meantime, the regulator continues to expansionary policy of negative interest rates and large-scale buying of assets. Against this background, even though the US-China trade war and other problems of the US, the dollar may continue to rise. At least, so say 65% of the experts, pointing out as targets the levels of 112.00, 113.50 and 114.70.
An alternative view is represented by 35% analysts graphical analysis on D1 and 20% oscillators, feeding signals about overbought. If this will be developed, the bearish scenario, a couple expecting a decrease in the area of 109.75-110.10. Near term support is 110.75;
- cryptocurrency. And bitcoin, and basic altkoiny are near their lows, and a crisis of confidence in the sector and the lack of positive news, prevents the development of a strong bullish momentum. Although, as we noted earlier, the news more often than not entail any serious economic consequences, and are merely a pretext for another speculation.
Objectives for a couple of BTC / USD earlier. Bull - height taking $ 6,850, and then $ 7,760, a bear - the breakdown of support $ 6,230, then $ 6,000, and the descent to a minimum $ 5,760. Falling below this level could be a strong signal to the mass sale cryptocurrency and cause complete collapse of the market. And this is contrary to the interests of all its participants, even those who now plays on the slide. Therefore, if the breakdown happens, it is likely to be short-lived, and the pair will return to the area of more than $ 6,000. Although some analysts and predict a fall to the level of $ 4,700.
And now the news for super-optimists and long-term investors who are willing to keep bitcoin to complete victory. What's On Crypto Telegram-channel noticed that after each Halving reward for mining bitcoin price increased by an order. When first lowering remuneration November 28, 2012 a pair of BTC / USD was trading at $ 12. In the second reduction of 9 July 2016 rate was about $ 657. Third decrease (from 12,5 BTC to 6.25 per unit) should occur in mid-2020 and, if the forecast is justified, by 2023 this rate cryptocurrency could reach $ 10 million per coin. So whether it is or not, "soon" we know - the wait is "only" about five years.
Roman Butko, NordFX