First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. If you look at the chart of the pair we can see that by the evening of Friday 23 November, she returned to the values of the morning of Friday 16 November. That is the result of weeks is close to zero, and a victory for the most accurate prediction can be awarded trend indicators and oscillators on the D1, take a neutral position.
As for the experts, one third of them predicted a continuation of the correction of the pair up to a level 1.1450-1.1550 (actual high of the week 1.1470), followed by the return of the dollar to rise. What actually happened, as a result, the pair finished the week at 1.1330;
- GBP / USD. The result of the last week for this pair is similar to the result of the EUR / USD, that is, close to zero. On Thursday, when it was reported that the European Commission approved a political declaration on Brexit, it seemed that there was a chance pound reverse the negative situation. He soared 150 points to a height of 1.2925. But the joy of the holders of the British currency was short-lived, and the end of five days the pair met in the zone of 1.2810;
- USD / JPY. About the future of this pair of expert opinion was divided almost evenly: 45% voted for the pair falling, 45% - for its growth, and 10% took a neutral position. And they were right - the first half of the week the pair fell, and then rose, and at the end of the session showed zero results returned to the Pivot Point in the zone of 112.85. Regarding support / resistance levels, there is most accurate was graphical analysis - at H4 he designated upper boundary of the channel at 113.10 (vapor grown to 113.14), and D1 - falling to the level of 112.65 (week minimum was fixed at 112.30);
- about cryptocurrency there are two variants of the forecast - and neutral ... very bad. Naturally, the second came true. Panic from hardforka (separation) BCH (Bitcoin Cash) into two new Coin continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, bitcoin flew down further, reaching $ 4,210-4,250 area, and pulled a cryptocurrency other values last September - this week the index Top 5 lost more than 500 points, or about 25%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The most important event that can seriously affect the quotes and the euro and British pound will be an extraordinary summit of European leaders Brexit, which will be held on 25-26 November. In the event of a positive outcome, the pair may return to the high of November 1.1470 and 1.1500. However, according to this scenario is less than half of the experts - 40%.
As for the remaining 60%, they continue to insist on the strengthening of the dollar. On Wednesday November 28 the market is waiting for the US GDP data for the third quarter, and, if they prove to be better than in the second quarter, it will have strong support the US currency. You should also pay attention to the minutes of the meeting the US Federal Reserve on Thursday 29 November, although no surprises can not be expected from him.
Objectives for the bears - and a minimum of 1.1300 2018 1.1215 in case of breakdown of which opens the way to 1.1120 support.
If we talk about indicators, the H4 on about 15% of the oscillators indicate oversold, which may presage a short-term correction;
- GBP / USD. Almost 100% of the indicators are colored red. But the future trends are determined not they. Solutions Summit, EU leaders Brexit is certainly very important for the pound. But it is waiting for more serious test - the agreement on the terms of the UK exit from the EU still needs to be approved and the British Parliament. And there are many chances that MPs will vote against the deal. In this case, the need to re-vote, which will probably be scheduled for February, but until then, investors will be treated to a pound with great caution.
In the meantime, experts' opinions were divided equally - half of them for the growth of a pair of half of its fall. The nearest support levels - 1.2720 1.2695, 1.2660, resistance levels - 1.2885, 1.2925 and 1.3025;
- USD / JPY. The Japanese currency is often in protivotrende his European colleagues: when the euro and the pound fell against the dollar, the yen is rising. It is such a prospect analysts draw for the next week. 55% of them supported by the oscillators 90% and 70% trend indicators, vote for the first reduction pair to support 112.60, followed by 30 points lower. In this case, it is possible that the pair will be able to successfully test and the level of 112.00.
Alternative supports 45% of the experts, graphic analysis on D1 and 10% oscillators signaling an oversold. Bulls goal - the zone 113.15-113.40 and 114.20-114.55.
- cryptocurrency. With high probability, the negative trend will continue in the market, and bitcoin will try to break through the level of $ 4,000. Next target for 1,000 points lower. The smart contracts based Ethereum discovered another vulnerability, and a pair of ETH / USD may fall to important psychological level of $ 100. Aim for laytkoyna (LTC / USD) - to gain a foothold below $ 30, but for Ripple (XRP / USD) - below $ 0.40.
Of good news for crypto-bulls - the divergence between quotations Bitcoin and indications of many oscillators, pointing to a possible upward correction. However, according to most experts, this correction will be short-lived.
Roman Butko, NordFX