First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Virtually all week the pair stayed where has repeatedly found a week, and month, and two or three months ago. Apart from the rare short-term breakdowns, the pair can not break out of the boundaries of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. If we expand this channel to extrema points, it will be slightly wider - 1.1215-1.1570.
This is due to the absence of any clarity on how Brexit, and on US-China negotiations. Added to this, on the one hand, the desire to restrain the Fed's interest rate increases, and on the other - poor statistics on the German economy and the Eurozone. Once the dollar starts to rise, there are rumors of the ECB on the possibility of launching an anti-crisis LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) or Article venerable analysts overbought US currency, and the trend is set again in favor of the euro. As a result of last week, the dollar was unable to break through the lower boundary of the channel, and finished the session at around 1.1335;
- GBP / USD. Despite ongoing discussions about the possibility of chaotic Brexit, Tuesday, February 19 pound has demonstrated impressive growth. Do not frighten the bulls even Fitch's warning about the possibility of the UK credit rating downgrade. Stepping psychological level of 1.3000, pound rose by 100 points higher, followed by a rebound and the pair continued movement along the horizon 1.3000 stay at midnight Friday at 1.3050;
- USD / JPY. During the week, experts discussed how to influence the behavior of the Japanese currency's decline SP500 index, which correlated pair. The effect on her completion of the next phase of the US-China talks? Do a couple of support the growth of the yield spread on 10-year US and Japanese government bonds?
Looking at the chart USD / JPY, you can see how the market reacted sluggishly to changes in these factors. With some dominance of bullish sentiment, the pair kept within a narrow side above the channel 110.45-110.95, returning to the end of the week to its central zone to the 110.66 mark;
- cryptocurrency. 7 days past the market was under the impression the news of that of JPMorgan, the first of the US banks, has created and successfully tested its own digital coin - JPM Coin, which plans to use in settlements with major financial institutions. And despite the fact that, in fact, JPM Coin is a rival standard cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quotations went up. Analysts DataLight came to the conclusion that an increase in prices Bitcoin occurred and the growth of the number of transactions, which reached values of April 2018.
However, this positive attitude does not mean a radical turning point and the beginning of a trend of stable growth kriptorynka. Yes, indeed, its volumes since last Friday initially rose about 10%. But after the BTC reached the level of $ 4,000, many players have decided to increase the lock in profits, which led to a reduction in capitalization by 2%. Therefore, the scenario of the BTC / USD pair to consolidate at the horizon $ 3,700 so far can not be excluded from consideration.
It should be noted that the share of bitcoin as "heavyweight" in the market now is more than 58%. As for the masthead altkoinov, then, starting in May 2018 with their "piece of cake" continuously decreases. Thus, the share Ripple (XRP / USD) to date is 11.52%, Ethereum (ETH / USD) - 9%, and laytkoyna (LTC / USD) - just 1.51%. But this "easy" allows them to show greater dynamism. Thus, the amplitude of fluctuations in the weekly Ripley was 25% and the Ethereum - 22%, which, of course, is very attractive for traders.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The week is filled with the publication of important macroeconomic data, and no less important speeches of politicians and key figures in the world economy. So, the market is waiting for performances by the US Congress on Tuesday, February 26th Fed chairman Jerome Powell. And if he will make it clear that the Fed is not going to rush into raising rates, it can create quite a lot of pressure on the US currency.
However, only 30% of analysts expect that such a "pigeon" attitude will increase to a pair Pivot Point medium channel in the zone 1.1400 and its further advancement to the upper limit 1.1500 channel. Most of the experts (70%) took the opposite view, believing that the weakening of the European economy and chaos with Brexit swing the balance in favor of the dollar, and the pair will return to the lows of recent months in the area of 1.1215-1.1240;
- GBP / USD. Key events that will determine the trend in the coming week will be the performance of the British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday 26 February and the vote of the Parliament on the revision of the country's transactions with the EU on Tuesday. If the proposals May will again be rejected before it snaps the choice of either output without transaction or postponement of Brexit. Judging by the mood of the market, most investors are inclined to the second option (or simply wants to believe in it). To that it may be, but 40% of the experts believe that the pound hold out at current levels near 1.3000 and 35% even predict his further growth to a height of 1.3200. For the drop pairs until the zone 1.2770-1.2830 voted only 25% of analysts.
Additional support for the pound may have an increase of "black gold" as "British" is directly correlated with the oil quotes.
- USD / JPY. The Japanese currency froze in anticipation of further developments. The deterioration of the macroeconomic statistics of the USA, Germany, narrowly escaped recession, Trump trade war with Europe and China, the slowest GDP growth in China over the past three decades - all this is the pessimism of investors about the global economic outlook. It would seem that in such a situation should rise interest to the yen as a currency of refuge. But instead grow their appetites for risky but more profitable assets. Thus, according to EPFR, the net inflow of capital in emerging economies through the ETF exchange traded funds since the beginning of the year was already 16 billion US dollars.
In such a situation, in full compliance with the most indicators and graphical analysis on D1, 70% of the experts votes for a further drop yen and the pair to a height of 111.50, and then at 100 points above. An alternative view is held by 30% of analysts, according to which pair must fall to 109.60-110.00 zone;
- cryptocurrency. After starting the coins by JPMorgan JPM Coin, kriptosoobschestvo expects similar steps and on Facebook, Amazon and other major corporations. But it's all in the misty future. In the meantime, regulators such as the SEC and the CFTC, be weight, including the unpopular steps, to bring order to this market.
Relatively coming week trends, expert opinions as follows. 40% - for the continued growth of Bitcoin to $ 4,200-4,400 area, not excluded to the maximum spurt in November 2018. at a height of $ 4,485. 35% suggest lateral movement in the channel pair $ 3,900-4,100, and the remaining 25% of the expected return BTC / USD pair $ 3,500-3,800 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX