First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Recall that in the previous forecast was made emphasis on the uncertainty that prevails in the markets lately. At that time, the preponderance of supporters bulls over bears was only 10%. For the growth of the European currency has voted 55% of experts versus 45%. As if responding to a balance of forces on Monday, November 11, and the pair grew slightly, reaching 1.0900, moved in a sideways trend. There she stayed until Friday, when, due to a weak European statistics (PMI PMI) and performance of the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, has sharply gone down. However, to break the support 1.1000 and could not, and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added markets even more vague and indefinite, saying that Europe needs a new system of economic measures and that soon the European regulator will reconsider its strategy. But what will this new strategy, it is unclear, especially if we recall that the Governing Council of the ECB discord reigns and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);
- GBP / USD. Britain is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which depends the situation with Brexit, and further the economic situation in the country. While, as in the case of the euro, there is no clarity. Therefore, in order to push the pair in one direction or another, and the bulls and the bears are looking for an excuse to economic news.
To sum up the results of last week, the victory was for the bears. Using the fact that the preliminary PMI PMI in the service sector dropped below the critical level of 50.0 and was 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the 1.2822 mark. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;
- USD / JPY. As already noted, almost all fall Yen falls, and the pair moves up, based on the four-hour time frame on the MA200. At least four attempts to break through this support ended in failure. And what the outcome of the fifth attempt, we wrote in the previous week, depends largely on the prospects for the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, concrete results are yet. US negotiators, and seem to be ready to meet, but are waiting for China's assurances that China is ready to make a commitment to protect intellectual property and technology, as well as the procurement of agricultural products from the United States. Do go to this China, and in what form - the question. And because the fifth attempt to break MA200 undertaken in the middle of last week, again ended in failure.
- cryptocurrency. The main "forecast", which is most often heard in recent years, can be reduced to only two words - "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors have followed our advice first, because the second, once again, proved itself completely - at a minimum on Friday, November 22 bitcoin has lost almost 20%, collapsed from $ 8,500 to $ 6,820. The reason for such a bear rally, as many experts believe, become miners, began to actively sell their crypto assets. Some of them needed a Fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some disappointed, simply decided to withdraw from the market.
Additional push-sale given rumors of Chinese Shanghai to visit police kriptobirzhi Binance office.
Top altkoyny such as Ripple (XRP / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), together proceeded to the south after the "big brother" - Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of kriptorynka decreased by 15.8% - from $ 239 billion to $ 201 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Applications for benefits in the US unemployment rose again. GDP growth in IV quarter has not yet even reach 0.5%. All this led investors to think about the onset of recession in the US economy. Next week we are waiting for the next portion of macroeconomic indicators from the US, which either confirm or deny the possibility of another version of the Fed lowering interest rates in January and February. Moreover, such a reduction may be not "traditional" 0.25%, and twice as many - 0.5%.
Of course, this is largely dependent on the final outcome of the IV quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that in 2020 - the year of the US presidential election, and the state of the US economy depends on whether Trump at the White House for a second term will remain. In the meantime, under the pressure the Fed step by step implementing mitigation policies and pumps up the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, lowering rates, the Fed is trying to increase production, and the result was a bubble of mortgage lending, which lopnuv led to the 2007-2008 crisis.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators is colored red. But experts do not expect the situation described above, the uncertainty that the couple will still be able to break the support 1.1000. Graphical analysis H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two failed attempts to do this, a pair of unfold and go up - 1.1090 first resistance, and then even higher - up to 1.1175 horizon.
Of course, the quotes can greatly affect the results of the next round of US-China trade talks that Beijing wants to hold still until November 28 - Thanksgiving Day in the United States. 65% of analysts expect that by the end of the year on this issue is still to be reached some consensus that would lead to an increase in the dollar and the decrease in EUR / USD pair to 1.0800-1.0900 area;
- GBP / USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12, and a respite from Brexit, a pair of the fifth week is moving in a sideways channel 1.2780-1.2980. Trend indicators and oscillators D1 painted in neutral gray. "Gray" can be called and the forecasts of experts (50% to 50%). Listening inflation report on Wednesday November 27 are unlikely to push out a couple outside the channel. The situation in the coming week is much more dependent on the US than from the UK. And clear progress in US-China trade talks could give the pair a strong bearish momentum, dropping it to the support 1.2650;
- USD / JPY. Fed pumps market dollar liquidity. But the same, in an attempt to increase inflation and revive production for many years and is engaged in the Bank of Japan. In this case, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen, significantly lower than the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest only to investors as a safe haven from financial storms. However, according to the schedule, starting with the end of the summer especially strong storms were not, and therefore the yen is falling, while the curve of quotations has been steadily creeping up.
Now there is consolidation in the area of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in the signing of a trade agreement could push the pair on the top between the US and China - to the level of 109.50. It is this movement expects from it most of the experts (65%) in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term even greater number of analysts (70%) of couples waiting for a turn to the south and returning it to the zone 105.70-106.70. And in many respects, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;
- cryptocurrency. At the time of writing the BTC / USD pair this forecast is about the same place where there was a month ago, before the take-off space on 25 October. Recall that while the reference cryptocurrency hit $ 10,500, adding to the high of 40%, thanks to the news that China's Chairman Xi Jinping has supported the development blokcheyna.
If you look at the chart, it is clearly seen that, starting from June 26, bitcoin is moving in the downlink. And if this movement will continue, we can expect the first outset along the horizon $ 7,300, and then another crash - now up to $ 5,000.
The main hope of investors that can support the course Bitcoin is halving 2020. According to some of them, after halvinga in 2020 the rate of the cryptocurrency can fly up to 4000%. As an argument, they cite the value of the main surges of digital assets that occurred after the last two cuts rewards for miners. After the first she climbed to 3420%. After the second - by 4080%.
Currently fear index and greed bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) goes into the lower quarter of the red and is 23, which corresponds to the extreme fear. According to the creators of the index, the indicator may indicate that the market is in a strong panic, and soon, perhaps, begin to rise. After all, large speculators, buying coins, playing on the slide to make, should at some point start the game on the rise. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.