First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Recall that most of the experts (55%) voted for the further growth of the pair and its transition into the zone 1.1745-1.1845. This forecast proved to be correct by 100%, and on Friday morning, the pair recorded a weekly high at a height of 1.1802, having risen for five days at 180 points.
The main reason for the weakening of the dollar has become the hope that China and the US can avoid a full-blown trade war. Crushing victory Americans became less clear and investors turned their attention to more risky assets, beginning of mass rid of dollar supply.
Another reason for the fall of the US currency was the delay with the transaction between Canada and the United States of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). As for the upcoming September 25-26, raising interest rates the Fed, the market has long since played for this scenario. As a result, the dollar index fell to a two-month low. However, toward the end of the "American" Friday could fight off some of the losses and the pair completed a marathon week at around 1.1750;
- GBP / USD. 60% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators, trend indicators and graphical analysis on the H4, felt that the pair will continue to rise to 1.3210-1.3315 area. That's exactly what happened - a maximum of a week was registered on Thursday on the horizon 1.3296. In addition to the above factors, the growth of the pound has helped the positive statistics of retail sales in the UK and some progress on the issue of the Irish border on Brexit of negotiations.
However, the victory over the dollar the pound was short-lived, and on Friday, breaking a two-week support for the ascending channel, the pair has failed on more than 200 points, returning to the values of the beginning of the week in the area of 1.3075. The reason is the same - the uncertainty of Brexit;
- USD / JPY. While the dollar has weakened against the euro and pound, he continued to strengthen against the yen. Interest in risk-free assets this week plummeted, and also the US, this list was the Japanese currency. And she, with her negative interest rate of -0.1%, outperforming the dollar topped the rating unattractive to investors. As a result, the yen lost to the dollar about 50 points, and the pair met the end of the weekly session at 112.60;
- cryptocurrency. As expected, the bitcoin resist in the corridor between $ 6,000 and $ 7,000, offsetting the fall in the first half of the week, followed by an increase above the level of $ 6,700. The end of the five-day week was supposed to please holders of almost all coins of the top 100, which moved into the green zone. But if Ethereum growth (ETH / USD) or laytkoyna (LTH / USD) was quite weak, Ripple (XRP / USD) has become a real star of the week, the price jumped by almost 45%. Among the factors contributing to its rise, hints Ripple guide to new product launches xRapid, the company access to the world's largest Asian market, remittances and the start of its work in Africa.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The coming week will be filled with a variety of events that could affect the trends and currency rates. As for the dollar pairs, the most important of them will be the Fed's decision on interest rates. Of course, the market is already prepared for its increase, but the growth of volatility on Wednesday, September 26 is still guaranteed. But if suddenly the rate will remain unchanged, it will produce an explosion effect, and the dollar will collapse like a rocket.
The final decision of the US Federal Reserve is still unknown. At the time of the writing of this forecast the situation looks like this:
90% of the indicators, graphical analysis on the D1 and H4, and 55% of experts voted for the pair. The immediate objective - 1.1850, the next 100 points higher.
For the strengthening of the dollar gave their votes 45% of analysts and 10% oscillators feed signals about overbought. Support 1.1620 and 1.1530. The ultimate goal in the medium term - at least at the level of 1.1300 in August;
- GBP / USD. For the growth of this pair of votes and 55% of experts, 30% - of its fall, and the remaining 15% took a neutral position. After a sharp drop on Friday, September 21, indications trend indicators divided almost in half and 20% of pereprodannosti oscillator signal pair.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows at H4 the possible reduction pair to 1.3000, and D1 level goal week was 1.2800, after reaching which may be followed by rebound to around 1.3020.
Resistance levels 1.3165, 1.3215 and 1.3300;
- USD / JPY. In theory, the formation of trends could affect the Bank's management meeting Japan on Tuesday, September 25, but is unlikely to expect from him any radical decisions.
The majority of analysts (60%) believe that the yen the dollar has already made too many concessions, and now should not expect the correction pair down. We agree with this graphical analysis on H4 and 10% oscillators D1, feeding signals about its perekuplennosti. Support at 111.70, 111.25 and 110.75.
Alternative scenario - growth of the pair to a height of 113.20 - support of 40% of the experts, graphic analysis on D1 and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1. The next goal - 113.75 and 114.75;
- cryptocurrency. Kriptorynok desperate for positive news that could move it up. And the main news of this, of course, could be the arrival of large institutional investors who can pour into it billions of dollars. However, some experts fear that such "whales" are very quickly driven from the market small "fry", thereby putting into question at all the whole idea of decentralized finance. As an argument, they cite the launch in December last year on the Bitcoin futures, which marked the beginning of a mass collapse of quotations of digital currency.
But this fear does not come to an end. For example, on September 26 is scheduled Mt.Gox creditors meeting, which will discuss the possibility to compensate for the loss of former clients of the Exchange due to the sale of stocks of 170 thousand. The BTC coins. What happens in this case is unknown. But it suffices to recall that in February-March this year, on the news of the sale of a similar Bitcoin has lost about 20% of the cost. And if September 30 the US regulator (SEC) will give the refusal of an application for the launch of an ETF, the reference cryptocurrency course may well fail well below $ 5,000. Positive SEC same solution (or even hint at it) can raise a couple of BTC / USD above the $ 7,000-7,500 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX