First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Starting on Monday, the level of 1.1110, the pair, as expected, most experts, came up. The market did not react to impeach US President Trump, and the S & P500 has once again updated the historical maximum. However, the end of the year - it's the end of the year and the related drop in volatility. Therefore, the pair has failed to achieve its goal - the height of 1.1200 and recorded a maximum of a week at around 1.1175.
Then everything happened again at the scenario described in the previous forecast, - a pair of turned around and went to the south, stalling at 1.1110. This was followed a few unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, then on Thursday, December 19 there was a rebound on the back of weak economic data from the US, and then again return to the 1.1110 zone.
It should be noted that, in addition to the horizontal support this level coincides with the lower boundary of the uptrend, which was launched on November 29, which is why the bulls so furiously rose to his defense. But toward the end of the week their strength exhausted, and the support was broken. According to experts, this was due to a decrease in quotations on a number of cross pairs, the release of positive statistics on the US consumer market, as well as the narrowing of the yield spread on government bonds in the US and Germany. The breakdown of the time, moreover, worked many stops of the long position, which allowed the pair to fall to the level of 1.1065. This was followed by a small rebound, and it closed the week at 1.1075;
- GBP / USD . The past week was not the most successful for the British currency. Davila pound negative trend on the bond market, where the UK yield securities fell compared with bonds and the US, and Germany. Statistics on the consumer market and disappointed investors - retail sales fell in November, the highest rate for the whole year - by 0.6%. That you would not say Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his supporters, British consumers are afraid Brexit and therefore limit themselves to spending. His contribution to the overall gloomy picture made and the Bank of England lowered its forecast for economic growth.
As a result, the whole week the pound moved on a scenario developed for it by experts. Recall that the majority of analysts (65%), supported by 90% of the indicators on the D1, expected the GBP / USD pair once again rush to storm the heights of 1.3500, and that the assault would end in failure. Indeed, on Monday, December 16 pound went up, but was able to overcome only 85 points, and then turned around and continued to decline, which began on Friday the 13th of December.
For this development we have voted 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis. According to their forecast, the couple had to very quickly reach the 1.3100-1.3200 area, which happened on Tuesday. But the fall of this has not been completed, and only on Friday 20 December, thanks to positive data on GDP for the third quarter (an increase of 0.4% instead of the forecast 0.3%), the pound was able to find support at 1.2990.
Then followed up a rebound to the level of 1.3080, supported by the adoption by Parliament of the United Kingdom Brexit law, and again falling to 100 points. The final chord is sounded at 1.3000;
- USD / JPY . The news background is quite diverse in the yen. Here and a strong increase in yields of US Treasury securities, which is strongly correlated with the Japanese currency, and the continuation of the upward trend of oil, and hopes for an early conclusion of a comprehensive deal between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary to pay attention to inflation figures in Japan. In November it was at 0.5%, ie, increased by 0.3%, which is though not powerful, but it's still a favorable sign for the Bank of Japan and the country's economy as a whole. How to react weathervane yen and mixed statistics about the state of the US economy.
The result turned out to be the most accurate forecast, supported by a quarter of analysts, according to which the end of the year the pair hold out in the side channel 108.40-109.70. In reality channel it was even narrower - 109.15-109.70, and completed the pair trading session in its central area - at 109.45;
- cryptocurrency. On Saturday December 14 the reference cryptocurrency went south. More precisely, not just gone and flew headlong, updating to the environment for at least the semi-annual and "losing weight" more than 11%. In the basic version, voiced by Bloomberg analysts, the fall caused a sell-crypto-pyramid PlusToken bitcoins worth about $ 2 billion. Behind followed by other coins. The total capitalization of kriptorynka just 5 days decreased by 9%, and some analysts are quick to put on Bitcoin "death cross", so named because the intersection of the 50-day moving average from the top down the 200-day MA).
However, rumors of the death of Bitcoin, as it has repeatedly happened, were greatly exaggerated. On Wednesday evening it became known that Bakkt platform shows record volumes of trading in futures BTC. And having found support at $ 6,470, bitcoin playfully began to make up the loss, only a few hours, it gained $ 1,000 (+ 15%). After that, the pair BTC / USD is back to where it all began - the values on 14 December.
With regard to these top altkoynov as Ripple (XRP / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), then, in general, they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency. That's only seven-day results were unprofitable for them. If Bitcoin is fully played their losses, the ripple has lost 12.5% of its value, Ethereum - 11.5%, and laytkoyn - 10%. This result suggests that investors get rid of altkoynov, diverting financial flows towards the first cryptocurrency.
As for the forecast for the next decade, perhaps we did not make the discovery, saying that in front of the Christmas and New Year holidays. Concerning:
- December 24 - trading on the Forex market closes at 17:00 CET
- December 25 - closed trades
- December 26 - the opening of trading at 00:00 CET
- December 31 - trades closed at 17:00 CET
- 01 January - closed trades
- On January 02 - the opening of trading at 00:00 CET
- EUR / USD , GBP / USD , USD / JPY . With high probability during all this time we are expected to sufficiently sluggish trading in a narrow range. Although, due to the intricacies of the market, are not excluded emissions in one direction or another. Gaps can be expected at the time of the opening of markets after the holidays.
If we talk about the experts' forecasts for the coming tenday, here it is impossible to give preference to any bulls, not bears, since expert opinions were divided:
- either in half: 50% growth and 50% for the fall of steam,
- or equally into three parts: one third of the growth, a third for the fall and a third in a sideways trend.
Much more interesting to forecasts of analytical department of global banks for the entire 2020th year, which we will publish in exactly one week. Naturally, they are based on the fundamentals. And we have brought together in a single table's indicators on the daily (D1) and weekly (W1) timeframes, which we hope to fans of technical analysis will help you to form an opinion about the main trends and market sentiment.
- cryptocurrency. Unlike forex kriptorynok never sleeps. And if kriptotreydery holidays and celebrate, then, without taking his eyes from the trading terminal.
In general, the positive news background:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch called bitcoin best asset on the effectiveness of investments in the last ten years. The bank estimated that $ 1 invested in the first cryptocurrency in 2010, has turned into $ 90,026.
The Central Bank of Sweden's Riksbank is exploring the possibility of creating a digital Swedish krona.
About Bakkt successes mentioned above. And it is very positive for kriptorynka signal because it indicates that institutional investors (at least some of them), consider the current situation to a successful purchase.
Analysts continue to give their forecasts for the value of bitcoins at the beginning of 2020. South Korean leaders kriptovalyutnyh exchanges Bithumb, Korbit and Hanbitco say that 2020 will be a better year for kriptorynka due cryptocurrency demand from institutional investors and persons generation Y (millenialov).
An analyst at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Michael Van De Poppe sure that the coin will rise in price to $ 8,000 at the beginning of 2020, and a month later raised to $ 9,500. The increase in the value of Bitcoin is also confident investment officer at fund Altana DC Alistair Milne. According to him, the coin will rise in price in anticipation halvinga. Sale altkoinov parallel to the main cryptocurrency will continue.
Another point of view is shared by the founder of Signal Profits Jacob Canfield, who predicts decline rate bitcoins to $ 5,500. But the bad news for today is that the crypto-pyramid PlusToken accounts is more than 20 thousand. The BTC tokens. And if it will continue to sell, then, according to Bloomberg forecasts, there is a risk of falling prices Bitcoin up to $ 4000. However, this is not the limit. Calculations for ASIC-miners showed that S17 from Bitmain is a device in which mining would be unprofitable only if the Bitcoin price drops below $ 3600. This means that at this level, and it is the main support.
While the index of fear and greed Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is still in its lower third at around 23, which corresponds to moderate fear prevailing in the market.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.
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