First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Most of the experts (65%) expect that the couple have to leave down. We supported this prediction signals and a third of oscillators pointing to overbought. All of what happened - week oscillation amplitude was about 100 points, while the minimum was recorded at the level of 1.1225.
Perhaps the decline of the euro on Thursday, April 18 would not be so strong if it were not shortened work week before Easter, when many banks and stock exchanges were closed in observance of Good Friday. The main reasons for the fall of data on business activity began to disappoint the market in the euro area and favorable for the dollar data on US retail sales.
By Friday evening, the European currency, however, managed to win back some of the losses and the pair completed a five-day period at the level of 1.1240;
- GBP / USD. Several large amplitude showed the couple - 140 points. The experts pointed exactly to the minimum to which it should fall. Realistically, the forecast of 1.2985, the pair bottomed at 1.2978 horizon - in the support area, which she unsuccessfully tries to break into the already over two months;
- USD / JPY. Some experts expect the growth of the pair, a part - will not drop it. However, fluctuations with a maximum range of 40 points can hardly be attributed to bullish or bearish trend. All week we've seen a classic sideways trend, which was started at around 112.00 and finished at 111.92;
- cryptocurrency. As already mentioned several times, the movement cryptocurrency largely motivated by the news background, which this week was mildly positive. Involved in the crypto-business "gurus" kept repeating the mantra of the imminent takeoff Bitcoin. Thus, the former financial analyst of JPMorgan, and now co-founder Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee said that the rate of Bitcoin the US dollar, given the success of the first cryptocurrency this spring, will show growth throughout the year and to the end will reach $ 10,000. But according to the head exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes, just a few years we will see a pair of quotes BTC / USD in the $ 50,000 neighborhood. The main news of the week is positive, in our opinion, was the news that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund jointly launched an internal cryptocurrency. While for educational purposes only their employees. But as they say, Down and Out the trouble started.
As for our forecast, it came true almost 100% - main cryptocurrency kept in the range of $ 4,975-5,370, gaining for the week about 3.5%. Increase of about 4% showed Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn ((LTC / USD), but the growth Ripple (XRP / USD) was less than 2%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The world economy is moving into recession, and many in Europe depends on how successful the EU leaders will be able to counter the negative trends. It is not just about how to develop the political situation in the EU, and not only about how to behave in the ECB in an effort to stabilize the economic situation in the euro zone, but also on how, for example, completed the US-China trade talks and how to behave after President Trump. Many analysts believe that Europe is now worse than other economic blocs are prepared to global economic recession and the attacks from outside.
Минувшая неделя вернула евро в пределы 15-недельного нисходящего канала. И 70% экспертов, поддержанные графическим анализом на Н4, считают, что европейская валюта продолжит сдавать свои позиции, опускаясь в зону минимумов 2019 года – 1.1175-1.1185. Только 30% аналитиков надеются, что пара сможет вернуться к отметке 1.1325. При этом следует обратить внимание на данные по ВВП США, которые будут опубликованы в пятницу 26 апреля. Согласно прогнозам, рост ВВП составит всего 1.8%, что значительно ниже предыдущего значения в 2.2%. Если этот прогноз окажется верным, быки могут двинуть пару к следующей цели на высоте 1.1420;
- GBP / USD. The previous five days the pair has completed at 1.2975 support area, which is trying to break through the eight weeks. Most of the experts (75%) believes that it is still feasible and it could fall to 1.2770-1.2830 area. However, some analysts hoped that the background pigeon rhetoric of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England still decides to increase interest rates. To this we can add on and continuing until the euphoria caused by the postponement Brexit. In sum, these factors allow the bulls to hope for the return of the pair above the 1.3100 mark. The nearest resistance level - 1.3130 and 1.3200. In order that this will happen in the coming week, only 25% agree analysts. But the transition to the monthly forecast, the side of the bulls stand for 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1. As for the testimony of the oscillators,
- USD / JPY. On Thursday, a decision expected the Bank of Japan April 25 we have on the interest rate and the press conference devoted to the monetary policy of the Bank. However, these two events will present hardly any surprises. Sideways trend of the pair does not contribute to the accuracy of the forecast. That is why the analysts' opinions with respect to its behavior in the next five days, almost equally divided - one third of its height, one-third of the fall, and a third for the continuation of the lateral movement. However, in the longer term, 65% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for a drop pair. On its perekuplennosti also fed signals and 25% oscillators. The pair is still in the reversal zone near the upper boundary 109.70-112.15 medium channel and, in the case of downward movement,
If the dollar continues to rise against the Japanese currency, its immediate task will be to gain a foothold in the area of 112.20-113.25. Next resistance at 113.70;
- cryptocurrency. In spite of the more or less positive news background, 65% of the experts remain pessimistic, believing that in the BTC / USD did not manage to break through the resistance near $ 5,500 a couple of times. Moreover, according to their forecasts, the bears will have on the market a certain advantage, pulling the pair to the support of $ 4,600. However, during the transition to the medium-term forecast of the balance of power is reversed, and here 60% of analysts believe the actual quotes bitcoins at $ 5,750-5,800.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.