First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. One of the scenarios imagined returning pairs within the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500, and as the main target is called its center line. This scenario was brought to life. On Tuesday 15 January the pair reached 1.1400 horizon and then to the rest of the week has moved along it, oscillating in a narrow range. When the pair was under constant pressure, allowing the bears to lower it to the end of the working week to the level of 1.1360.
Euro falls for several reasons - it's weak economic performance of the euro area (primarily in Germany), and the decline in export potential, and chaos with Brexit. In the last days there is an active game at increasing British pound, which also does not benefit the European currency;
- GBP / USD. Against the background of talk about a possible transfer of the UK release dates of the European Union and even the possibility of a second referendum, the game is to increase the pound after the failure of the Prime Minister Theresa May in the vote on Brexit especially well traced on such pairs as EUR / GBP and GBP / CHF. As for the pound against the US dollar, then repulsed Tuesday on the level of 1.2667, by Thursday it managed to rise by more than 330 points, reaching the height of the sign 1.3000. After that there was a strong rebound and the pair completed a week-long session is almost the same place where he began - in the zone of 1.2870;
- USD / JPY. Outlined a week ago was the balance between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency and the interest of investors to more risky but more promising investments, shifted towards the latter. As a result, the pair quotes went up, and by the end of the week for the dollar was already 109.76 yen;
- cryptocurrency. To paraphrase the title of a famous novel, one can say. "On the crypto-front without changes" Among the positive news - Stock Exchange of Thailand plans to obtain a license for operations with digital assets. However, the timing of this initiative are not yet known. Hardfork Constantinople in Ethereum network is postponed for an indefinite period to eliminate vulnerabilities. In general, the complete uncertainty. Even stolen from the stock exchange Gate.io tokens ETC attackers took and for some reason, brought back, without explaining the reasons for his action.
On this news blurred background couple BTC / USD is flat. The range of its oscillation, ranging from medium decreases continuously. Following the Bitcoin switched to sideways movement laytkoin Ripley and other top altkoiny. And even Ethereum managed to partially recover losses. As a result, the reduction ETH / USD pair for seven days was only about 5%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The main anxiety of investors associated with the European currency, have been listed above. However, not all that bad in Europe. Thanks to the euro lower rate, not greater activity index PMI falls, and many factors point to a stabilization of the euro zone economy. In addition, the market is waiting for the promise of the ECB raising interest rates in early autumn 2019. As for the US dollar, there is, on the contrary, the likelihood of another rate rise in the short term tends to a minimum. Further growth of the economy is also in question. Experts believe that the current political crisis and the termination of the government's work may lead to a fall in annual GDP to 0.5-0.75%.
All this allows 45% of the analysts talk about a possible strengthening of the euro and the coming change of the trend from bearish to bullish. Immediate objective - the center line in a two uplink 1.1450 zone, then the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1570. With such a scenario, and 15% agree oscillators feed signals oversold.
The remaining 85% of the oscillators as well as 100% of trend indicators on the D1 and H4, painted red. Insist on the further falling of pair and 55% of the experts. support levels - 1.1300, 1.1270 and 1.1215.
Among the events of the coming week can mark the ECB's decision on interest rates on Thursday, January 24th. However, with almost one hundred percent probability rate would remain unchanged, but because this decision does not affect the pair quotes. Of much greater interest is the performance of the prime minister Theresa May in the British Parliament, where it should announce a backup plan for the country's exit from the EU;
- GBP / USD. Of course, everything that is connected with Brexit, direct impact on the quotations of the pound. And here there are lots of options for future development, which makes the British currency risky and unpredictable asset.
What is the probability of an election? Will there be a change of government on the government Mae Corbin? As far as possible the hard scenario "divorce" with the European Union? And whether or not, in accordance with Article 50 of the EC Treaty, has been postponed term "divorce"? Is there a chance to hold a new referendum? And if this would not cause a referendum to widespread protests and riots?
Questions, questions, questions ... and complete uncertainty, which is a fertile ground for all sorts of rumors and speculation. In such circumstances, 40% of the experts believe that the pair still has potential for growth, 40% are waiting for its fall, and the remaining 20% are advised to wait for greater clarity, carefully watching the developments.
Support in the areas of 1.2800-1.2830 and 1.2615-1.2645. Resistance levels 1.2920, 1.3000 and 1.3070;
- USD / JPY. Most of the experts (60%), in agreement with the 90% oscillators forward to continued capital outflows towards riskier assets and the fall of the yen. In this case, the pair can rise to a height of 110.30 and then another 100-130 points higher - to a strong level of support / resistance 2017-18g.g. in the zone of 111.55.
An alternative view is supported by 40% of analysts, a graphical analysis on D1 and 10% oscillator signal the overbought. Major support levels are 109.00 and 107.75;
- cryptocurrency. All last week the pair BTC / USD traded in a very narrow range of $ 3,570-3.800. Very often, this lull is a harbinger of strong price movements. 45% of analysts believe that the pair will try to break through the lower boundary of the channel, and, if successful, she will decline to 2018 lows. in the area of $ 3,200-3,250. A few more experts (55%), on the contrary, expect a bounce up. The goal - to return a pair of $ 3,850-4,215 zone. The basis for this optimism is some kriptorynka capitalization growth, which, in comparison to January 13 increased by about 5%, close to the mark of $ 130 billion.
Roman Butko, NordFX