First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The upcoming elections to the European Parliament, as well as the Film about the confusion with Brexit continue to put pressure on the European currency. It does not help the euro even escalation of tension in US-China trade war - in spite of the fighting spirit of the Chinese leadership, the markets put on a US victory. And China's defeat will automatically enhance the problems are closely associated in the Eurozone.
Recall that, by giving a month's forecast, 70% of the experts were of the opinion that the pair will continue to move in the medium-term downward channel and re-test the 1.1110 at least the end of April. Last week was the confirmation of the correctness of this prediction: within five days the pair has lost around 80 points and finished near the intended target - at around 1.1155;
- GBP / USD. Nothing new here did not happen, and the movement of this pair continues to depend on just one short word - Brexit. Last week, we were of the opinion that the Prime Minister does not Mei can solve this problem. And now the media are full of headlines about her, Theresa May, the inevitable resignation. Not (or failure) of the Government to negotiate with the opposition literally knocks down a pound. As a result, the couple easily pierced the April lows and, starting the week with a mark of 1.3000, has completed it at the level 1.2715, having lost 285 points;
- USD / JPY. Subtotal for the last week of the pair is substantially zero, in quotes difference between midnight on Friday 10 of May and 17 May midnight has not exceeded 10 points, and a pair of completed week at 110.00;
- cryptocurrency. Such few expected: six days Bitcoin quotes soared 30%, reaching on Thursday May 16 mark at $ 8.335 and nearly $ 1,000 exceeded the most optimistic forecast of experts. Deposit growth since the beginning of the year amounted to 120%, which, according to co-founder Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee (Tom Lee) means have to watch "kriptozimoy" time of the year - "kriptovesny".
The reason for this "spring" the mood was the closure of the major players of short positions and open long at the level of $ 5,500-6,000, after which they were joined by many of the small investors. Some experts also believe that the role played by the sharp deterioration in the trade war between the US and China, then Chinese investors have chosen to protect their capital by investing bitcoin.
However, the main cryptocurrency was never able to gain a firm foothold in the combined heights. The players start to take profits, and by the evening of Friday May 17 a couple of BTC / USD slipped to $ 7,000, losing more than half of the win from the Bears, leaving those who have opened long positions above this zone, calculate potential losses.
As for the main altkoynov, then, as usual, they followed in the wake of its "big brother", repeating his rise and fall. As a result, over the past week laytkoyn (LTC / USD) increased by 11%, ripple (XRP / USD) - 25%, and Ethereum (ETH / USD), showing the best results - 30%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The greatest interest in the upcoming week is focused on the US Federal Reserve. On Tuesday May 21 the head of the organization Jerome Powell will speak at the Annual Conference on Financial Markets on the topic of the US financial system risks. The next day will be released minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee by May 1. Investors are looking forward to what will be said in the report, and the report on the future monetary policy of the Fed, as well as any forecasts for the US economy will be given there.
At the moment, the situation looks rather optimistic, and 75% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators and trend indicators 100% on the D1 and H4, are expected to further strengthen the US currency. According to them, the couple certainly try to break through the support zone of the April lows and fall below the level of 1.1100.
Thus 15% of the oscillators warn oversold. Correcting north expect the 25% analysts and graphical analysis on D1, drawing pairs of lift to resistance of 1.1265, and possibly even higher - to the height of 1.1335. However, as has been said, a strong influence on the behavior of the pair may have the above-mentioned events on May 21 and 22;
- GBP / USD. It seems that the market does not know what other surprises we can expect in the next Brexit series. When will the resignation of May and some of Britain's party won the elections to the European Parliament? What will the next, fourth in a row, the vote of the bill to withdraw the UK from the EU staff? There are more questions than answers, and in such a situation, the majority (60%) of experts just shrug. The rest are equally divided their preferences, giving 20% of the vote bulls, and the same - the bears.
With regard to the indicator reading, they are the same as for the EUR / USD. Similarly, 15% of the oscillators are oversold and graphical analysis on D1 insists correction upwards. Support levels are 1.2665, 1.2614, 1.2475 and 1.2400. resistance levels are 1.2865, 1.3000 and 1.3165.
It should be noted that at the transition to the forecast for the coming months the number of bulls supporters waiting rise above the level of 1.3200 pairs increases to 65%. Help the pound in the coming week may increase in the consumer price index (CPI), which will be published on Wednesday, May 22, and will increase from 1.9% to 2.1% expected;
- USD / JPY. On Monday, May 20, there are data on the growth of Japan's GDP, and analysts expect that it will be zero. Such a result could be a bad signal for the yen, and it will continue its retreat to the dollar. 50% analysts expect pair growth to a height of 111.00. Third of the experts believe that the pair will move in the range of 109.00-110.00. As for the remaining 20%, then, in their opinion, the Japanese currency strengthened to values near 108 yen per 1 dollar.
In this case, almost all experts agree that the main trend for the pair will be determined not in Tokyo, and in the US, and depend on the Fed's forecasts on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the battles progress on the US-China trade war fields.
- cryptocurrency. Despite the bad news on Friday, the crypto-bulls with crypto hamsters, recruited a bitcoins in the autumn of 2017, hoping that the fall of BTC pair / USD to the level of $ 7,000 - just a correction, and soon bitcoin will continue to grow. With them in solidarity around 50% of the experts. As a goal for the coming months is called the height of $ 10,000. And analysts say the company Canaccord Genuity, within two years of the course BTC will reach $ 20,000. "We've found a match between the periods 2011-2015 and 2015-2019 for and realized that the first cryptocurrency operates within the four-year cycle. This is confirmed by the fact that the decline in miners reward occurs every four years ", - said in a statement.
A quarter of the experts suggests that the pair will be difficult to gain a foothold above the resistance level of $ 8,500 (that's where its growth was halted in July last year), and for some time it will move it closer to this horizon, then moving away from him.
Finally, the remaining 25% of analysts are predicting a drop Bitcoin to support $ 6,000, based on which the couple moved from February to November 2018.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.