First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The main forecast for this couple was that she was not only able to fall to an annual low of 1.1300, but also, perhaps, have been awarded this support and reaches values in the region of 1.1200-1.1250. That's the way it happened - at least a couple of week recorded on Monday 12 November, dropping to the level of 1.1215.
Then the market began to rule Brexit. The news that the UK from the EU entry conditions finally agreed, the European currency has pushed up, and by the end of Friday, the pair rose 200 points, ending a week-long session at around 1.1415;
- GBP / USD. On positive news about Brexit started to grow and the British pound, and even reached a height of 1.3070 on Wednesday. But then came the news of the resignation of a number of key ministers of the British government who disagree with the terms of the EU's output. Aggravated the situation rumors of a possible impeachment, threatening the country's prime minister Theresa May. As a result pound literally fell down in a matter of hours fallen to a level 1.2722. Then the situation is somewhat relieved, and steam up to 1.2830 zone, showing weekly volatility 350 points;
- USD / JPY. Divergence between readings oscillators and quotes pair pointed to the possibility of reversal of the trend downward. This scenario is supported by analysts and 45%, with 40% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4. As a result, when up to a maximum in 2018 was only 35 pips, the pair reversed to the south, easily broke the 113.10 support and completed a five-day period at the level of 112.82;
- cryptocurrency. What can I say? Market collapsed. And as no one expected. Wednesday he had lost in the capitalization of about 12%, falling to $ 185 billion. As the lower limit of the fall of Bitcoin last week we called $ 6,100. In reality it was much worse - $ 5,430.
In determining the cause of the incident among the experts of unity is not observed. The most popular version - a destabilizing effect on hardforka (separation) BCH (Bitcoin Cash) into two new Coin, spooked investors further fragmentation of the market. Although there is another version, at least viable - mass triggering stop-loss when passing zone Bitcoins $ 6,000-6,100. Another reason - the sale of shares in technology companies in the US, which spread to kriptorynok.
Ethereum (ETH / USD pair) unsuccessfully tried to break support $ 170, followed by a rebound to $ 185. Ripple (XRP / USD) briefly approached the horizon 0.4140 and laytkoin (LTH / USD) - to 40.00, after which the market calmed down, and the pair played about 8%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The pair reached the upper limit of the downward channel, which was launched almost two months ago - 24 September this year. And despite the fact that both trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 took a neutral position, about 70% of the experts predict a rebound from a pair of the border and a further fall. Near term support is at 1.1300, the next - 85 points lower at 2018 low 1.1215.
An alternative scenario suggests the pair rise to a level 1.1450-1.1550. However, this is likely to be a temporary correction, after which the dollar will continue to grow, and the pair - fall. The market is almost certain that in December, the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after that happens a few more enhancements in 2019, which is a decisive factor for the further strengthening of the US currency;
- GBP / USD. The future of this pair depends on the situation with Brexit. And forecasts for the British currency's not very comforting, despite the fact that at the end of last week, the pound managed to win back their losses slightly. November 25 will convene a meeting of EU leaders on an agreement with the UK. But it is clear that next week the pound will continue to be under pressure due to differences in the British government and it is unclear what is happening on the reaction of the British Parliament. Given these factors, and here 70% of analysts vote for the pair falling. Immediate support at 1.2700 area, next - at least 2018. at the level of 1.2660.
As for the further movement of the pair, in the opinion of 55% of the experts, before the end of the year it will move in a sideways channel in the range 1.2660-1.3200 with Pivot Point in the area of 1.2950;
- USD / JPY. About the future of this pair of expert opinions, as it often has been in recent years, divided almost evenly: 45% voted for the pair, 45% - of its fall, and 10% took a neutral position.
Among the vast majority of indicators is colored red. However, almost 15% of the oscillator signals oversold, which may indicate its early correction upwards.
As for the graphical analysis, then H4 it shows growth up to the level of 113.10 and the subsequent drop to the level of 111.85, and D1 - a lateral movement in the channel 112.65-114.20;
- cryptocurrency. Currently, there are two versions of the forecast - and neutral ... very bad.
The most likely neutral for the market will take a time-out, trying to comprehend what happened last week, and what consequences this may have. In this case, top pair will fluctuate in a range between lows and highs of the previous week on Friday November 16th.
The worst (in terms of the bulls) scenario assumes Bitcoin movement to the level of $ 5,000, the breakdown of which is likely to begin mass panic sell-off not only the reference cryptocurrency but most altkoinov. In this case, there is a possibility that after some time we will see quotes about Bitcoin support $ 3,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX