First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As expected the majority of experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar last week, went up, and the EUR / USD pair with the euro - down. However, the goal, the minimum 1 August 1.1025, it has not reached, groped a local bottom at 1.1065.
The reason for the fall of the European currency began in the first place, "doves" promises director general of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn (Olli Rehn). According to this prominent European official, in September, the market expected a decrease of the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly 0.2) percentage points (currently 0.4%), as well as the resumption of quantitative easing program in the amount of QE about 50 billion euros per month.
In addition, in favor of the dollar played is not a good economic statistics from Germany and China and an unexpected rise in retail sales in the United States. Market expected to reduce this figure from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.
- GBP / USD. Last week, analysts did not expect British pound no significant changes, so their forecast has been classified as a neutral. As for technical analysis, the 25% oscillators H4 and signals D1 fed oversold that, in practice, is a strong signal for a reversal of the trend and the upcoming correction. What happened - fighting off competition from the level of 1.2015 the pair went to the north, registered on Friday week high at a height of 1.2175. The final chord of the same five-day period sounded in the zone 1.2140, which may be called Pivot Point first week of August;
- USD / JPY. A third of the analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators 100% on the D1 and H4, were convinced that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from the storms of currency, and therefore falling of pair will continue until minimum 3 January 2019. at the level of 105.00. And so it was, and as early as Monday, August 12, the pair came close to this mark.
Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on the D1 voted for the reversal of the trend and rise up to the height of a pair of 107.00, which it reached on the next day - on Tuesday, August 13th.
Ending weeks of satisfied remaining third of specialists who took a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, it is clear that the couple moved to the movement in the lateral channel 105.00-107.00 and completed work session closer to the center - at the level of 106.35. Thus, it can be considered a dream come all three scenarios - bearish, bullish and neutral;
- cryptocurrency. Kriptoentuziasty like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee and co-founder of Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano continue efforts to raise the status of Bitcoin, declaring that he has become a safe-haven asset, along with gold and the Japanese yen. And here I want to ask, what is it a refuge, if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency has lost more than 20% of its value collapsed from $ 12,000 to $ 9,500?
With such a breakneck volatility bitcoin is not a safe haven and an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well, a refuge not only from fluctuations in the traditional financial markets, and by ... their younger colleagues in the digital market - altkoinov, in which interest falls continuously.
If you look at the market dynamics altkoynov, then, since the peak of June 26, its capitalization fell from $ 124 to $ 79 billion, that is more than 36%. Losses also bitcoin twice below - 18% (fall from $ 229 to $ 187 billion). Accordingly, investors are losing interest even to such top-end coins, like Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and laytkoyn (LTC), switching attention to Bitcoin (BTC), whose share of the market has already exceeded 70%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. One, European, hangs in the balance - slower growth of the economy the most important partner of the EU - China, weak economic indicators in Germany, Italy and the problems Brexit. On the other hand, the American - pleasing eye macro statistics from the US and the Fed leadership that the US economy is on a solid foundation and no trade war, it is not terrible. It would seem that the answer to the question of which side should be the advantage is clear - on the side of the dollar. This is the opinion of 65% of experts, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate objective - support area 1.1000-1.1025, after breaking up a parity of 1: 1 will be only 1,000 points. At the current rate falling overcome this distance may take a little more than a year. (Recall that in December 2016. Pair has dropped to the level of 1.0350).
However, if we imagine the other weights, then things become not so obvious. So, one, European, hangs in the balance - Olli Rehn announced on September decline in interest rates on the euro and the revival of QE program. And in the US - the expectation of a recession of the US economy, dissatisfaction with the actions of the Fed, Donald Trump, and, as a consequence, the possible reduction in interest rates on the dollar until the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumb to pressure from the US president, is not ruled out a reversal of the trend and rise up to the pair of marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400. And if such a possibility is not excluded 35% of analysts in the near future, in the medium term, the number increases to 55%.
According to experts, some clarity about the financial policy of the United States should give the Fed meeting on Wednesday, 21 August, and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week. In addition, great interest is the record of the meeting of the ECB's monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22;
- GBP / USD. In the UK, there is a fairly interesting situation. On the one hand, production is reduced, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. And on the other - instead of the forecast in July retail sales decrease by 0.3% was registered growth of 0.2%. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fear of the consequences Brexit, residents prefer to purchase rather than financial savings.
How long will such a situation is not clear. Steps need to wait for the new prime minister Boris Johnson and response to the British Parliament. So far, this has not happened, respite, which took the pair in its fall, will, according to the majority (65%) of experts continued and the pair hold out in the side channel 1.2000-1.2200. The nearest support level - 1.2050, resistance - 1.2175.
As for the graphical analysis, and H4 and D1 after a few days of the movement in the sideways, he predicts the fall of the pair to a minimum in October 2016 in the area of 1.1900-1.1940;
- USD / JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar - investors remain strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-China trade war. This means that the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial harbor. Waiting for the impending recession of the US economy and the Fed lowering US interest rates also played against the dollar. Added to this is falling yields on US 10-year bond, which has fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities fell below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the yen and lower pairs. However, experts, supported by graphical analysis on the H4, are inclined to believe that at least a week a couple will stay in the side channel 105.00-107.00. But in the future, most of them (60%) are not waiting for the fall, and, conversely, strengthening the dollar and growth pairs to 108.50-109.00 zone. In agreement with this prediction and graphical analysis on D1;
- cryptocurrency. Giving long-term projections - it is grace. The more long-term prognosis is better. If he does not come to pass, do not worry - everything about him has long since been forgotten. And if the prediction is correct, you can of yourself and recall.
For example, an investor and head of the firm Draper Associates Tim Draper (Tim Draper) predicted that prices in bitcoin will reach $ 250,000, perhaps at the end of 2022, or perhaps at the beginning of the 2023rd. Well, the wait is only about three years.
If you talk about more than approximate forecasts, the famous kriptovalyutny analyst Nicholas Merten sure that Bitcoin will reach the mark of $ 15,000 in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right and the trend reversal is around the corner, but it is clear signal to buy there, and fear and greed index Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is still at the level of «Fear» - «Fear".
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.