First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. All week the European currency pushed up not only the growth of the Euro Stoxx 600, followed by pigeon rhetoric of the ECB Mario Draghi, but, above all, optimism regarding the entry conditions (and, perhaps, and not exit) the UK from the European Union. As a result, the pair re-entrenched within the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570, which moves from the end of October 2018, and even closer to its center line, hitting on Wednesday, March 13, the height of 1.1338.
Thursday, March 14, was the only bad day for the European currency. On this day it was announced that a meeting of US leaders and China - Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will not be in March, and it will happen, probably only in April. This news once again aroused the interest of investors to the dollar, though not for long, and on Friday the pair can be seen at a height of 1.1345. As for the end of the trading session, then, thanks to strong consumer confidence University of Michigan, the couple met her 20 points lower - at 1.1325
- GBP / USD. Most experts expected in March to strengthen the British currency and its first growth to a maximum of February (1.3350), and then 200 points higher. This forecast is coming true - a maximum of the last week has been fixed at a height of 1.3380, and the pair completed a five-day marathon in the area of very strong resistance level of 1.3300.
Week oscillation amplitude has reached 420 points. And if you look at the graph pair, it is a bit like a cardiogram, jumps and falls are associated with what was going on these days in London. The British Parliament voted against a second referendum and spoke in favor of the transfer deadline of 30 June Brexit. In this scenario, a "hard" output without a deal with the EU, was rejected. Now the prime minister Theresa May will have to go to the European Union on the bow with a request to postpone Brexit. And here is how it will react to the EU, is still a question as to give its consent to it have all 27 countries included in this community. And what will the new agreement, too, is unclear. If the parties could not agree more than two years, what they can do for the next three months?
- USD / JPY. As expected by most analysts, the pair kept within the ascending channel, which was launched in the beginning of January 2019. And almost reached the plank in 112.00. Before taking this height it had only 10 points, but the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda managed to stop the decline of the national currency.
Japan's economic indicators do not look in the best way. The trade deficit is the biggest in 6 years, and the reduction of exports to China - a maximum of 2 years. This is partly due to the celebration of Chinese New Year, but the fact remains - Japan hit hard by the global economic slowdown. Do not add optimism and the planned 2019 increase in the sales tax.
However, according to Kuroda, not all that bad. "At the present time, - he said at a press conference on March 15 - in the second half of this year, our main scenario assumes a recovery in China and the euro zone economies." "A Japanese economy itself remains at a moderate extension, and momentum to achieve inflation target 2% - is saved."
- cryptocurrency. There is a famous philosophical paradox, called "Buridan's ass". This parable dates back to the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, and the meaning of it is the problem of selection. There donkey dying of hunger, and he stands midway between the two absolutely identical piles of hay. Which to choose? According to the parable, the donkey and could not solve, and eventually died of starvation.
In kriptovalyutnom community donkeys there, there are bulls and bears, but they have many weeks wandering along a single line, not knowing in which direction to move in order to get enough profit.
This, of course, a metaphor. But the fact that the price of Bitcoin has consolidated around $ 3,900, it's a fact. The third week of the maximum volatility is not more than 200-300 points. Some of the experts with the hope of calls it the end of the accumulation phase and the calm before the storm. But what is considered a storm?
As expected, last week a couple of BTC / USD was moving in the hallway $ 3,850-4,050. A similar modest volatility demonstrated Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoin (LTC / USD. Only Ripple (XRP / USD) demonstrated several bursts, although later and everything is calmed down and returned to normal.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. On the one hand, the slowdown in US GDP, and the prospects for recovery of the Eurozone economy play in favor of European currency. On the other hand, the threat of Trump's start against the EU's new round of economic warfare alarming for the future of the euro. As a result, the majority of experts (65%) believe that the pair will continue to balance the range of 1.1215-1.1570. Thus positive information on Brexit will contribute to its targeted promotion to the upper boundary of the channel. Nearest strong resistance - in the area of 1.1400, the following - by 100 points higher.
In Wednesday March 20 we are waiting for decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates and the traditional press conference the head of the organization Jerome Powell. On the first issue of surprises, most likely, will not, and the rate will remain unchanged until. Most of the experts (60%) believes that its next increase will happen in September or even later. But Powell in his speech can make adjustments to these forecasts, and did not turn the pair dropped down to the next lower boundary of the channel breakout 1.1215, and its return to a minimum 7 March 1.1175. About 15% of the experts do not rule out lowering the pair during March-April to the 1.1000-1.1100 area;
- GBP / USD. On Tuesday, March 19th and Wednesday 20th of entire block of macroeconomic data will be released in the UK, and on Thursday the 21 th - the Bank of England decision on interest rates. But all these events paled before the next episode of the series called Brexit - March 20 to be another vote in Parliament on the deal with the EU that will certainly cause increased volatility in the pair.
Last week the pair has completed in the zone of very strong resistance level 1.3300, which it is trying to overcome, since June last year. Will this area is the level of support it depends on what note will end this session of Parliament, as well as what signals come from the Bank of England the next day. 70% of analysts, with the support of 90% of trend indicators and oscillators on the D1, optimistic, believing that the pair can rise to the level of 1.3470. The next target - 1.3600.
An alternative point of view is supported by 30% of the experts. In their view, the pound has already exhausted its potential, and the couple is waiting for a lateral movement in the channel of 1.2960-1.3300. support / resistance levels 1.3080 and 1.3200;
- USD / JPY. The main forecast for this pair remains the same - 75% of analysts believe that the upward trend will continue, the couple overcome the bar at 112.00, after which she will move in the sideways channel 112.25-113.70 as it was in November and December last year.
Prediction that draws a graphical analysis on D1, is more restrained - lateral movement within 111.35-112.70.
As for the indicators, the 70% of them as the H4 and on the D1, painted in green, 20% - in the gray, neutral, and only 10% - in the red.
In the case of a reversal of the trend levels of support 109.10, 110.25 and 110.75;
- cryptocurrency. If you look at the chart Bitcoin, there is a bad feeling about the next disaster. Look at the interval from mid-July to mid-November 2018. - gradual reduction of volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result of the collapse of quotations ... almost 45% - from $ 6,500 to $ 3,660.
And now look at the period from mid-November to date. Absolutely the same pattern: the gradual decline in volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result ... But as a result, is still unknown. Crypto-market is known for its unpredictability. Although 70% of specialists, and vote for the fall of BTC / USD pair during the spring below $ 3,000.
As for the forecast for the near future, it is unchanged: most likely, the pair will continue to move along the horizon $ 3,900 quotations emissions by 200-300 points in one direction or another. It should be noted that the trading conditions offered brokerage company NordFX, allow to make even the most minor fluctuations cryptocurrency intraday. Trade is at the usual traders with platforms MT4 and MT5, fees are minimal, and to open a position on the buy or sell volume in 1 bitcoin (1 lot) just enough MT5 $ 100 or $ 300 on MT4.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.