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First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- EUR / USD. Billionaire George Soros, convinced that further strengthening of the dollar will lead to a new financial crisis. In this case, 10 of the 60 polled by Reuters analysts believe that growth in the US currency will end a month later, 35 believe that the strengthening of the dollar will continue at least until the fall, and another 15 USD discharged growth until the end of the year. Among the latter, experts and ABN Amro, who believe that the euro should fall to the level of 1.1000, and only then, in 2019, will be able to regain some lost ground.
Interestingly, the US Federal Reserve decision to raise the interest rate to 2%, which was announced last week, no one was surprised. It did not cause excitement and information that this year we should expect two more similar promotions, and three in the future. Euro recovered quickly and, moreover, demonstrated against the background of these events rise to the level of 1.1850.
But the ECB's decision to extend the quantitative easing regime (QE) instantly dropped the euro against the dollar by more than 300 points. Our experts as the main support area called the level of 1.1570, which the pair rushed and EUR / USD. By bear extremely powerful pulse of inertia, it lowered even to 30 points lower, however, recover, and completed shortly turned trading session at around 1.1610;
- 65% of analysts expect the continuation of the correction GBP / USD pair to the level of 1.3615, after which she had to resume its movement in the south. However, the pair could not rise above the level of 1.3445 and rushed down again, trying as May 29, the breakdown of support at 1.3200 zone. And, also, as in May, the attempt was unsuccessful, and the pair returned to the 1.3280 zone;
- USD / JPY. Analysts 50% in favor of the growth of the pair, naming as resistances horizons 110.25 and 111.40, between which - at the level of 110.60, and it has completed five days;
- cryptocurrency. In recent days, following their leader - Bitcoin, almost all of them struck the important support levels and moved farther south, testing out new horizons. So, The BTC was able to break support $ 7,125 and $ 7,000 and 14 June reached a weekly low of $ 6,110, and then managed to win about 7%, and up to $ 6,575. Showed similar dynamics and other virtual currencies in the top 10 by market capitalization.
Since the beginning of the year the market capitalization kriptorynka decreased by 44.3% (to $ 611 billion. To $ 340 billion.). Only on the night of 10 on June 11 the market shrunk by $ 25 billion. Many traders and analysts have tried to explain this collapse burglary Coinrail markets in South Korea, but in reality it lost a total of 40 million dollars, so theft is likely to become a pretext for the next Losers crypto-coins.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
In addition to the aforementioned extension QE program, a strong pressure on the euro and ECB has to leave the base rate to record low of 0%, and the deposit rate at -0.4%. It was also stated that these rates will not be raised "at least until the summer of 2019". At the same time, Mario Draghi acknowledged that the euro area economy in 2018 will not return to the projected level of growth.
All this, coupled with the success of the economic policies of President Donald Trump, creates significant preconditions for the further strengthening of the dollar. That is why 65% of the experts expect that next week the EUR / USD test the 1.1500 level, and, if successful, could drop by another 100 points lower. With this development, and 90% agree oscillators on H4 and D1.
For the remaining 35% of the experts, that, in their view, the pair still has a chance to return to the 1.1825 zone, but the probability of such a development will depend on what people will say in their speeches at the beginning of the week ECB President Draghi and Federal Reserve Dzh.Pauell ;
- on the GBP / USD chart clearly shows that the fourth consecutive week the pair is moving in a sideways channel 1.3200-1.3470. However, 60% of analysts believe that, after the euro, the British pound also continue to fall. In their view, the pair GBP / USD could easily break through the lower boundary of the channel and go to the train 1.3050-1.3200. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators.
An alternative view, represented 40% of the experts, involves the movement of the pair to sideways 1.3200-1.3345. Next resistance in a zone of 1.3400.
On Thursday, June 21 should be held a regular meeting of the Bank of England. However, with high probability, it is not any surprises will present, so expect the market a serious exchange jumps in this moment it is not necessary;
- on the day before their British counterparts, will hold a meeting and the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of Japan. As for the experts, there are two-thirds of them are wary of a slight increase in the USD / JPY to 111.00-111.50 zone. Next resistance - 112.00.
On the bears on the side of the third time were analysts graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 20% oscillators feed signals overbought. If their scenario will be true, a couple waiting reduction first to the support of 109.40, and then, perhaps, and then - to the levels of 109.00 and 108.50;
- most forecasts for major cryptocurrency can be reduced to only two proposals: 1) in the near future they will continue to fall, and 2) in the longer term should grow. For example, according to the forecast of analysts Fundstrat Global Advisors, bitcoin could fall to around $ 3,250. However, even this, in their opinion, "not to break the long-term uptrend cryptocurrency first."
The immediate goal for BTCUSD, according to the founder Onchain Capital Ran Neuner is the level of $ 5,900. Optimistic as part of his prediction is that "if the price of Bitcoins to reach 20, 40 or 80 thousand dollars within a few years, no one will worry about whether it is $ 6,000 or $ 6,500 purchased. Only traders working on the scale of less than a year, should worry the current fall in the market price. " That's just when exactly will this long-awaited rise to 80,000, the expert did not specify.
Roman Butko, NordFX