First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Recall that last week, the expert community has been unable to form a more or less definite opinions on the movement of the pair. This was due to the absence of any clarity on how Brexit, and on US-China negotiations. In addition, analysts expected release of GDP data in Germany and the EU, as well as on inflation and retail sales in the US. And if Europe showed the expected growth of 1.2%, while Germany rose by 0.2% (from -0.2% to 0.0%), the data from the United States greatly alarmed the market. Retail sales declined by 1.2%, the most in 10 years value. As a result, the dollar index has suspended growth and walked away from two-month highs.
Has ceased to grow and the dollar against the European currency. However, if to sum up the whole five days, the victory still left for the "American" - starting from the level of 1.1320, the pair finished the week at 1.1295;
- GBP / USD. The pound fell for a third week in a row. The problems associated with Brexit, added bad macroeconomic indicators showing a slowdown in the growth of the economy - GDP growth decreased compared to the previous quarter, from 0.6% to 0.2% and the consumer price index fell by 0.3%. As a result, on Thursday, the pair recorded a weekly low at 1.2770.
Then released statistics on the US economy, which launched the trend from south to north. As a result, the British pound was able to play the dollar and 115 points to complete a week-long session at around 1.2885;
- USD / JPY. The first half of the week the Japanese currency retreated, reaching a value of 111.12 yen per dollar. But then, on the background of falling stock market because of weak economic data from the US and who have come once again to a deadlock in US-Chinese talks, the pair made a sharp turn. Increased appetite for risk-free investments helped to reduce the quotations to the level of 110.25, which was followed by a correction, and the pair stopped at the level of 110.45;
- cryptocurrency. Last week, when asked, can it be considered a breakthrough Bitcoin to a height of $ 3,800 a harbinger of the storm, we noticed that the couple only returned to the consolidation of the line (or the Pivot Point), along which moves for 11 weeks from the end of November 2018. And they were right - consolidation will continue, and the whole is already the 12th, the week the pair was kept in a very narrow side corridor $ 3,630-3,750.
Total capitalization kriptovalyutnogo market also remained virtually unchanged. If on Friday, February 9, it was at $ 121.78 billion, the seven days was $ 120.16 billion. As for the top altkoinov, then, unlike the reference cryptocurrency, they showed a somewhat higher volatility. For example, the fluctuation laytkoyna (LTC / USD) was about 15%, and Ripple (XRP / USD) - about 7%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. On one side of the scale - not the rosy economic situation in Europe, on the other - the collapse of stock markets and a trade war in the United States. JP Morgan and Macroeconomic Advisers lowered cvoi forecasts for US GDP growth. A BofA Merrill Lynch and Bloomberg raise forecasts for the euro area. In their view, a zero GDP growth in Germany - this is a temporary factor, and, in the case of soft Brexit and improvements in the economy of China, Germany, and together with her and the rest of Europe, will move towards sustainable economic growth. All this, together with the desire to take a pause in the Fed's monetary tightening, the market gives reason to believe that the regulator's belated measures, a US recession is not far off, and the balance will swing in the direction of Europe. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will strengthen. But in the future.
In the meantime, 70% of experts, supported by indicators on the D1, is expected to strengthen the dollar and the continuation of the downtrend pair EUR / USD. The immediate objective - 1.1200. Next support is located in the zone 1.1085-1.1115.
The opposite opinion is held by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on the D1, assume that the problems in the US economy will force the dollar to surrender its position in the near future. In this case, the steam returns to the limits of the corridor 1.1300-1.1500 medium and rush first to its center and then to the upper limit;
- GBP / USD. The outlook on this pair for the coming week is similar to the outlook for the pair EUR / USD. There is also 70% of the experts, with 90% of oscillators and trend indicators to D1, expected drop pairs, and 30%, along with graphical analysis, - its growth. On the side of the first - inevitably approaching hour of divorce with the EU is still unclear circumstances. On the side of the second - the very problems the US, which is already much has been said above. support levels - 1.2830, 1.2715, 1.2655, resistance - 1.2925, 1.3000 and 1.3065;
- USD / JPY. If the US dollar is feeling well enough against the euro and the pound, something about the confrontation with the yen do not. The positive dynamics of the Japanese currency as a safe haven may continue with further deterioration in the global economic outlook and reduced risk appetite.
For the near future couples experts' opinions were divided in half, but the transition to the monthly forecast for the strengthening of the yen has voted 65% of analysts. support levels for the pair - 110.00, 109.60, 109.10, 108.50. Resistance Levels - 110.65, 111.25, 112.30, 113.70;
- cryptocurrency. According to analysts, any fundamental factors explaining Bitcoin jump to a height of $ 3,800, no. So, most of all, the further development of this upward momentum does not get it. 65% of the experts believe the most likely movement of BTC / USD pair in the range of 3,500-3,300 with a gradual decrease to a level of $ 3,000. The remaining 35% of analysts hold the opposite view, expecting a couple will still be able, at least for a time, up to $ 4,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.