First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As expected, the Fed and the ECB left interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the market reaction to their decision was almost zero. On the side of the dollar on Twitter last week were Donald Trump and the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
The US president said its subscribers that "we (ie. E. US) close to a major deal with China. They want her to conclude, as we are! "That is, if earlier Trump said that the trade agreement is needed only to Beijing, now it turns out that Washington is also interested in signing him.
Later Bloomberg reported that Trump, to prevent the increase of tariffs on 15 December has already endorsed an interim agreement, which, in addition to the failure of the new duties, and also provides for reduction of the existing tariff rates for many types of Chinese imports.
A second driver for the dollar acted as Christine Lagarde, said that the ECB, although it has made some adjustments in the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2020 as a whole upholds the current parameters of its monetary policy.
Thanks to these two leaders, the results of the week could be very disastrous for the European currency, if not the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. The victory of the Conservative Party has pushed the pound up sharply, and he, in turn, pulled a and the euro. As a result, at maximum EUR / USD pair rose to the level of medium-strong band of support-resistance around 1.1200. However, then the balance of power was virtually rebuilt, and the pair finished at 1.1116;
- GBP / USD. It is natural that after the elections the gap demonstrated not only the euro, but also, and primarily, the pound. The Conservative Party, led by the current Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson won a solid majority of seats in Parliament, which gave hope that the longstanding confusion with Brexit finally over, and January 31, 2020 is still the process of exit of Britain from the EU starts.
Such an outcome of the elections in general, was considered by the market. Therefore, after the pair GBP / USD soared nearly 500 points and rose above the 1.3500 level, many players began to close long positions, helped by the aforementioned steps Trump. As a result, by the end of the trading session, the British currency lost weight by nearly 180 points, stop falling at around 1.3340;
- USD / JPY. If the European and British currencies rose versus the dollar, the yen, in contrast, yielded its positions. Recall that most experts last week voted for the pair to a height of 109.75, and the prediction was 100% accurate.
The US and China almost came close to signing a trade agreement, but the US stock market on Thursday, December 12 has updated the historical maximum. Investor interest again turned to such risky assets, such as stock index futures, triggering a sell-off of the Japanese currency, which lost at the maximum 130 points. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 109.35;
- cryptocurrency. At the end of last week, the index of fear and greed Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is in its bottom third - at the level of 29, which corresponds to moderate the fear of investors. Exactly himself and behaved in the market - at a moderate buying more active sales. BTC / USD The pair moved all week in a range of $ 7,100-7,700 for a certain superiority bears, which gradually presses it against the lower boundary of the channel. For seven days bitcoin lost about 4.5%. Demonstrated similar dynamics and such top altkoyny such as ripple (XRP / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), on the whole reference cryptocurrency repeat the movement.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. At first glance, next week we are waiting for a lot of important events. This publication PMI Markit Germany and the EU on Monday, December 16, and ECB President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, and the output data of annual US GDP on Friday 20 December. But hardly expect a repetition rate jumps like those that triggered last week by the elections in the UK. Some of the experts believe that a couple will push advances in US-China trade talks. Others, by contrast, are waiting for a pair of inertia for some time continue to move upward.
It should be noted that 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on the D1 is still painted in green. Also waiting for the continuation of growth of pair in the near future, and 85% of the experts. However, this growth is, in their opinion, would be negligible. Pair again tries to break the resistance of 1.1200 and, subject to backlash may rise to 1.1225-1.1235 zone. Next resistance 1.1255. But then it is waiting for a trend reversal and a return to the zone 1.1000-1.1100. The realization of this scenario may take from one to three weeks, and totally agree 65% of analysts and graphical analysis on the D1;
- GBP / USD. The next five days of the UK macroeconomic statistics will pour in on us in abundance. Monday - the index of business activity in the services sector Markit, Tuesday - the unemployment rate ILO, Wednesday - CPI and Thursday - the decision of the Bank of England's interest rate and report on monetary policy, Friday - for the third quarter GDP data. In general, a day without news. But most importantly - a market with bated breath to wait, that will say and do the prime minister Boris Johnson about running Brexit process. Recall that it is still necessary to have time until 31 January 2020. to ratify the agreement with the EU Parliament.
In the meantime, experts forecast the pound looks about the same as the euro. Most of them (65%), supported by 90% on the D1 indicator, believes that the pair once again rush to storm the heights of 1.3500 reached in the night from Thursday 12 December to Friday 13th. However, the success of this company believe few, only 25%. The remaining 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, believe that soon we will again see a pair GBP / USD in the 1.3100-1.3200 area. And, actually, why not? What good is waiting for the UK after the release of the EU? - that's the question;
- USD / JPY. 75% of analysts believe that progress in US-China trade talks will continue to push the pair up. Additional support it will provide growth and yield spread on 10-year US and Japanese government bonds in the debt market. With such a forecast agree oscillators 85%, 95% trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1. Near term resistance is 109.70, the goal - strengthening in the area of 110.00-111.00.
The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to go beyond the 108.40-109.70 side corridor, where he will continue to move, at least until the end of the year. A possible trend reversal and the return of the pair to the 108.40 support and 15% say oscillators supply clear signals about overbought. Next Support - 108.25;
- cryptocurrency. fear and greed index Bitcoin (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) is still in its lower third, and even decreased in the quarter compared with the previous week, dropping to the level of 22. In general, the current situation can be called stagnation. But kriptorynok the glory that after a long lull, followed by a sharp rise. Or fall. After all, most traders come here just for this - to make a super-volatility cryptocurrency.
For speculators, it does not matter what kind of market at the moment - bullish or bearish. So, despite the decline in prices lately Bitcoin network continues to expand and currently reached a record 28.4 million addresses. This is according to CoinMetrics service. Bulls supporters say that a similar trend was observed at the end of last year, when the bitcoin trading at $ 3200. Then, many investors are taking advantage of falling cryptocurrency, we have begun to actively buy it.
To a new high, according glassnode service, soared and the number of purses with a thousand or more Bitcoins, whose owners are hoping to make a profit, primarily as a result of halvinga, which is scheduled for May 2020.
According to co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, this event is a tremendous increase in the price of Bitcoin, but it will be a gradual increase. "I do not think that the price will take off the next day after halvinga - predicts entrepreneur - but I believe that, since the current values, it will rise to $ 100,000 by December 2021".
Recall that as a result of the size of awards in halvinga Bitcoin network is lowered by half - from 12.5 to 6.25 coins per unit. But all this will happen in five months. If we talk about the forecast for the near future, there is 65% of the experts expect to reduce BTC / USD pair to the zone of $ 6,500-6,800. According to the remaining 35% of specialists, the pair will try to rise above the level of $ 8,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.